The 2008 Elections- the Condensed Landscape

This is an attempt to make a very condensed summary of potentially competitive Congressional races and states which could be competitive in the presidential election. D+x, R+x, or Even is the PVI index for the district or state, which is a measurement of its partisan orientation in the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections.

For House races, the rating from Swing State Project (July 21, 2008) is given as ++D, +D, Toss, +R, ++R, or W for watch. [] Indicates the race is not considered competitive at all by SSP, but is a Republican seat with a PVI which makes it a potential risk or has a high minority percentage (more than 35%). House seats under each state are listed in order of SSP rating and PVI, with most Democratic first. * means the seat is open. A percentage is the percentage of whites in the district with comments afterward on blacks (B), Latinos (L), Asians (A), or Native Americans/Hawaiians (NA/NH).

For Senate and President, victory likelihoods from FiveThirtyEight.com are given for September 30, 2008 if the percentage is between 10% and 90%.

After each race, major party candidates are listed if available and the nominations are already fixed. Races without a major party opponent are dropped from the list. For incumbents running for re-election a date of first election to Congress is given. RSC means a member of the rightist Republican Study Committee and MSP is the Republican moderate Main Street Partnership.

Northeast- 117 EV (22 Sen, 92 House, 3 DC)

ME

NH- Sen D+1, R Sununu- vs. Jeanne Shaheen (32% R, Shaheen +3.4%)
NH- Prez (71%--Obama +2.8%)
NH-01 (Even, D Carol Shea-Porter 2006) vs. Jeb Bradley +D

VT

MA

RI

CT
CT-05 (D+4, D Christopher Murphy 2006), 80%,11L - vs. David Cappiello ++D
CT-04 (D+5, R Christopher Shays 1987, MSP), 71%,11B,13L - vs. Jim Himes Toss

NY
NY-25 (D+3, R Jim Walsh*, MSP) vs. Dale Sweetland ++D
NY-13 (D+1, R Vito Fossella*), 71%,11B,9A vs. Robert Straniere ++D
NY-24 (R+1, D Michael Arcuri 2006) vs. Richard Hanna ++D
NY-20 (R+3, D Kirsten Gillibrand 2006) vs. Sandy Treadwell +D
NY-26 (R+3, R Tom Reynolds*, RSC) Christopher Lee (R) vs. Alice Kryzan (D) +R
NY-29 (R+5, R Randy Kuhl 2004, MSP) vs. Eric Massa +R
[NY-03 (D+2, R Peter King 1992)] vs. Graham Long
[NY-23 (Even, R John McHugh 1992)] vs. Michael Oot

NJ
NJ-03 (D+3, R Jim Saxton*) - Christopher Myers (R) vs. John Adler (D) +D
NJ-07 (R+1, R Mike Ferguson*), 79%,8A - Leonard Lance (R) vs. Linda Stender (D) Toss
NJ-05 (R+4, R Scott Garrett 2000, RSC), 86%,7A - vs. Dennis Shulman ++R
NJ-04 (R+1, R Chris Smith 1980)]- vs. Joshua Zeitz W
[NJ-11 (R+6, R Rodney Frelinghuysen 1994), 83%,6A] - vs. Tom Wyka

PA- Prez D+2, 84%, 10%B (84%--Obama +6.0%)
PA-08 (D+3, D Patrick Murphy 2006) - vs. Tom Manion ++D
PA-04 (R+3, D Jason Altmire 2006) - vs. Melissa Hart +D
PA-10 (R+8, D Chris Carney) - vs. Chris Hackett +D
PA-11 (D+5, D Paul Kanjorski 1985)- vs. Lou Barletta Toss
PA-03 (R+2, R Phil English 1994) - vs. Kathy Dahlkemper +R
PA-15 (D+2, R Charlie Dent 2004, MSP) - vs. Sam Bennett ++R
PA-06 (D+2, R Jim Gerlach 2002, MSP) - vs. Bob Roggio W
PA-05 (R+10, R Peterson*) - Glenn Thompson (R) vs. Mark McCracken (D) W
[PA-18 (D+2, R Tim Murphy 2002, RSC) - vs. Steve O'Donnell]

MD
MD-01 (R+10, R Wayne Gilchrist*, MSP) - Andy Harris (R) vs. Frank Kratovil (D) +R

DE
[DE-AL (D+7, R Michael Castle 1992, MSP)]- vs. Karen Hartley-Nagle

DC

Midwest- 124 EV, 24 Sen, 100 House

OH- Prez D+1, 84%,11B (67%, Obama +2.0)
OH-18 (R+6, D Zack Space) - vs. Fred Dailey ++D
OH-15 (R+1, R Pryce*, MSP) - Steve Stivers (R) vs. Mary Jo Kilroy (D) Toss
OH-16 (R+4, R Ralph Regula*, MSP) - Kirk Schuring (R) vs. John Boccieri (D) Toss
OH-01 (R+1, R Steve Chabot 1994, RSC), 69%,27B - vs. Steven Driehaus +R
OH-02 (R+13, R Jean Schmidt 2005) - vs. Vicotria Wulsin +R
OH-07 (R+6, R Dave Hobson*, MSP) - Steve Austria (R) vs. Sharen Neuhardt (D) ++R
OH-03 (R+3, R Mike Turner 2002, RSC, MSP), 79%,17B - vs. Jane Mitakides W
[OH-12 (R+1, R Pat Tiberi 2000), 72%,22B] - vs. David Robinson
[OH-14 (R+2, R Steve LaTourette 1994, MSP)] - vs. William O'Neill
[OH-05 (R+10, R Bob Latta 2007, RSC)] - vs. George Mays

MI- Prez D+3, 79%,14%B, (88%, Obama +7.0)
MI-07 (R+2, R Tim Walberg 2006, RSC)- vs. Mark Schauer Toss
MI-09 (Even, R Joe Knollenberg 1992), 81%,6A - vs. Gary Peters +R
[MI-11 (R+1, R Thad McCotter 2002)]- vs. Joseph Larkin
[MI-06 (R+2, R Fred Upton 1986, MSP)]- vs. Don Cooney
[MI-08 (R+2, R Mike Rogers 2000)] - vs. Robert Alexander
[MI-04 (R+3, R Dave Camp, RSC, MSP)] - vs. Andrew Concannon
[MI-10 (R+4, R Candace Miller 2002)] - vs. Robert Denison
[MI-02 (R+9, R Pete Hoekstra 1992, RSC)] - vs. Fred Johnson
[MI-03 (R+9, R Vern Ehlers 1993, MSP)] - vs. Henry Sanchez

IN- Prez R+8 (50%, McCain +0.1%)
IN-09 (R+7, D Baron Hill 2006) - vs. Mike Sodrel +D
IN-03 (R+16, R Mark Souder 1994, RSC) - vs. Mike Montagano ++R
IN-04 (R+17, R Steve Buyer 1992) vs. Nels Ackerson W

IL-
IL-14 (R+5, D Bill Foster 2008), 74%,18L - vs. Jim Oberweis +D
IL-11 (R+1, R Jerry Weller*, MSP) - Debbie Halvorson (D) vs. Marty Ozinga (R) Toss
IL-10 (D+4, R Mark Kirk 2000, MSP), 75%,12L,6A - vs. Daniel Seals +R
IL-06 (R+3, R Peter Roskam 2006, RSC), 75%,12L,8A - vs. Jill Morgenthaler W
IL-18 (R+5, R Ray LaHood*, MSP) - Aaron Schock (R) vs. Colleen Callahan (D) W
IL-13 (R+5, R Judy Biggert 1998, MSP), 82%,7A - vs. Scott Harper W
[IL-16 (R+4, R Donald Manzullo 1992, RSC)] - vs. Bob Abboud
[IL-15 (R+6, R Tim Johnson 2000, MSP)] - vs. Steve Cox
[IL-19 (R+8, R John Shimkus 1996)] - vs. Daniel Davis

WI-
WI-08 (Even, D Steve Kagen 2006)- vs. John Gard +D
[WI-01 (R+2, R Paul Ryan 1998, RSC)]- vs. Marge Krupp
[WI-06 (R+5, R Tom Petri 1979, MSP)]- vs. Roger Kittelson

MN- Sen D+1, R Coleman- vs. Al Franken (61% R, Coleman +1.8)
MN-01 (R+1, D Tim Walz 2006) ++D
MN-03 (R+1, R Jim Ramstad*, MSP) - Erik Paulsen (R) vs. Ashwin Madia (D) Toss
MN-06 (R+5, R Michele Bachmann 2006, RSC) - vs. Elwyn Tinklenberg ++R
MN-02 (R+3, R John Kline 2002, RSC) - vs. Steve Sarvi W
[MN-07 (R+6, D Collin Peterson 1990)] - vs. Glenn Menze

IA-
IA-04 (Even, R Tom Latham 1994)- vs. Becky Greenwald ++R
[IA-05 (R+8, R Steve King 2002, RSC)] - vs. Rob Hubler

MO- Prez R+1, 84%,11B (43%, McCain +0.9)
MO-06 (R+5, R Sam Graves 2000)- vs. Kay Barnes +R
MO-09 (R+7, R Kenny Hulshof*)- Blaine Luetkemayer (R) vs. Judy Baker (D) +R
[MO-02 (R+9, R Todd Akin 2000, RSC)]- vs. Bill Haas

ND- Prez R+13, 92%, 5%NA (14%, McCain +7.2)

SD

NE
NE-02 (R+9, R Lee Terry 1998, RSC) - vs. Jim Esch ++R

KS
KS-02 (R+7, D Nancy Boyda 2006)- vs. Lynn Jenkins +D
KS-04 (R+12, R Todd Tiahrt 1994, RSC) - vs. Donald Betts W

South- 173 EV, 28 Senate, 145 House

WV- Prez R+4 (Obama 22%, McCain +4.8%)
WV-02 (R+5, R Shelley Capito 2000, MSP) - vs. Anne Barth ++R

VA- Sen R+3, R Warner*, 70%,19B- [Senate is Safe Democratic]
VA- Prez (78%, Obama +4.1)
VA-11 (R+1, R Tom Davis*, MSP), 67%,10B,11A - Keith Fimian (R) vs. Gerry Connolly (D) +D
VA-02 (R+6, R Thelma Drake 2004, RSC), 67%, 21B - vs. Glenn Nye +R
VA-10 (R+5, R Frank Wolf 1980), 77%,7A - vs. Judy Feder ++R
VA-05 (R+6, R Virgil Goode 1996, RSC), 72%, 24B - vs. Tom Perriello ++R
[VA-04 (R+5, R Randy Forbes 2001, RSC), 62%,33B] - vs Andrea Miller

NC- Sen R+5, R Dole, 70%,21B- vs. Kay Hagan (51% R, Dole +0.1)
NC- Prez (44%, McCain +0.7)
NC-08 (R+3, R Robin Hayes 1998, RSC), 62%,27B - vs. Larry Kissell +R
NC-10 (R+15, R Patrick McHenry 2004, RSC) - vs. Daniel Johnson W

SC-
SC-02 (R+9, R Joe Wilson 2001, RSC), 68%,23B - vs. Robert Miller W
SC-01 (R+10, R Henry Brown 2000, RSC), 74%, 21B- vs. Linda Ketner W

GA- Prez R+6, 63%,29B (11%, McCain +7.5)
GA-08 (R+8, D Jim Marshall 2002), 83%,13B - vs. Robert Nowak +D
[GA-11 (R+18, R Phil Gingrey 2002, RSC), 62%,28B]- vs. Hugh Gammon
[GA-03 (R+19, R Lynn Westmoreland 2004, RSC), 56%,40B] - vs. Stephen Camp

KY- Sen R+7, R McConnell- vs. Bruce Lunsford (79% R, McConnell +5.5)
KY-03 (D+2, D John Yarmuth 2006), 76%,19B - vs. Anne Northrup +D
KY-02 (R+13, R Ron Lewis*, RSC)- Brett Guthrie (R) vs. David Boswell (D) +R
[KY-01 (R+10, R Ed Whitfield 1994)] - vs. Heather Ryan

TN-
[TN-03 (R+8, R Zach Wamp 1994, RSC)]- vs. Doug Vandagriff

AL-
AL-05 (R+6, D Robert Cramer*), 78%,17B - vs. Wayne Parker +D
AL-02 (R+13, R Terry Everett*), 67%,29B - Jay Love (R) vs. Bobby Bright (D) Toss
AL-03 (R+4, R Mike Rogers 2002), 65%,32B - vs. Joshua Segall ++R

FL-Prez 65%,14B,17L (58%, Obama +1.0%)
FL-16 (R+2, D Tim Mahoney 2006), 82%,10L - vs. Tom Rooney +D
FL-24 (R+3, R Tom Feeney 2002, RSC), 80%,10L - vs. Suzanne Kosmas +R
FL-08 (R+3, R Ric Keller 2000), 70%,18L - vs. Alan Grayson +R
FL-25 (R+4, R Mario Diaz-Balart 2002, RSC), 24%,10B,62L - vs. Joe Garcia +R
FL-21 (R+6, R Lincoln Diaz-Balart 1992), 21%,70L - vs. Raul Martinez +R
FL-13 (R+4, R Vern Buchanan 2006, RSC) - vs. Christine Jennings ++R
FL-18 (R+4, R Ileana Ros-Lehtinen 1989), 30%,63L - vs. Annette Taddeo ++R
[FL-10 (D+1, R Bill Young 1970)]- vs. Bob Hackworth
[FL-07 (R+3, R John Mica 1992)]- vs. Faye Armitage
[FL-09 (R+4, R Gus Bilirakis 2006)] - vs. Bill Mitchell
[FL-15 (R+4, R Dave Weldon*, RSC)]- vs. Steven Blythe
[FL-05 (R+5, R Ginny Brown-Waite, MSP)]- vs. John Russell
[FL-12 (R+5, R Adam Putnam, RSC), 72%,12B,12L]- vs. Doug Tudor
[FL-06 (R+8, R Cliff Stearns 1988, RSC), 79%,12B]- vs. Tim Cunha
[FL-14 (R+10, R Connie Mack 2004, RSC)] - vs. Robert Neeld

MS- Sen R+8, R Roger Wicker, 61%,36B- vs. Ronnie Musgrove (85% R, Wicker +7.5)
[MS-04 (R+16, D Gene Taylor 1989), 73%,22B] - vs. John McCay
MS-01 (R+10, D Travis Childers 2008), 71%,26B - vs. Greg Davis +D
[MS-03 (R+13, R Pickering*), 64%,33B] - Gregg Harper (R) vs. Joel Gill (D)

LA- Prez R+5,63%,32B (10%, McCain +9.3)
LA-06 (R+7, D Don Cazayoux 2008), 63%,33B Toss
LA-04 (R+7, R Jim McCrery* 1988, MSP), 62%,33B Toss
LA-07 (R+7, R Charles Boustany 2004), 72%,25B ++R
LA-01 (R+18, R Steve Scalise 2008), 83%, 13B W

AR- Prez R+2,79%,16B (10%, McCain +8.5)

OK-
OK-01 (R+13, R John Sullivan 2002), 76%,6NA - vs. Georgianna Oliver W
[OK-02 (R+5, D Dan Boren 2004), 70%,17NA]- vs. Raymond Wickson

TX-
TX-23 (R+4, D Ciro Rodriguez 2006), 41%,55L - vs. Lyle Larson ++D
TX-22 (R+15, D Nick Lampson 2006), 61%,20L,8A - vs. Pete Olson Toss
TX-10 (R+13, R McCaul 2004, RSC), 66%,19L - vs. Larry Joe Doherty ++R
TX-07 (R+16, R John Culberson 2000, RSC), 67%,18L,7A - vs. Michael Skelly ++R
[TX-32 (R+11, R Pete Sessions 1996, RSC), 50%,36L] - vs. Eric Roberson
[TX-24 (R+15, R Kenny Marchant 2004, RSC), 64%,10B,18L,6A] - vs. Tom Love
[TX-03 (R+17, R Sam Johnson 1991, RSC), 63%,17L,8A] - vs. Tom Daley
[TX-17 (R+18, D Chet Edwards 1990), 71%,10B,15L] - vs. Rob Curnock
[TX-19 (R+25, R Neugebauer 2002, RSC), 64%,29L] - vs. Dwight Fullingim

West- 124 EV, 24 Senate, 98 House

MT- Prez R+13,89%,6NA (18%, McCain +5.6%)

ID
ID-01 (R+19, R Bill Sali, RSC) - vs. Walt Minnick +R

UT

WY
WY-AL (R+19, R Barbara Cubin*, RSC)- vs. Gary Trauner ++R

CO- Sen R+3, R Allard*, 75%,17L- Bob Schaffer (R) vs. Mark Udall (D) (81% D, Udall +5.9%)
CO- Prez (84%, Obama +5.6)
CO-04 (R+9, R Marilyn Musgrave 2002, RSC), 79%,17L - vs. Betsy Markey Toss
[CO-06 (R+10, R Tancredo*, RSC)]- vs. Hank Eng

NM- Sen Even, R Domenici*, 45%,42L,9NA- [Senate is safe Democratic]
NM- Prez (89%, Obama +8.7)
NM-01 (D+2, R Heather Wilson*, MSP), 49%,43L- Darren White (R) vs. Martin Heinrich (D) T
NM-02 (R+6, R Steve Pearce*, RSC), 44%,47L - Edward Tinsley (R) vs. Harry Teague (D) +R

AZ- Prez R+3, 64%,25L,5NA (10%, McCain +8.8%)
AZ-08 (R+1, D Gabrielle Giffords 2006), 74%,18L- vs. Tim Bee +D
AZ-01 (R+2 R Rick Renzi*, RSC), 58%,16L,23NA- Sydney Hay (R) vs. Ann Kirkpatrick (D) +D
AZ-05 (R+4, D Harry Mitchell 2006), 77%,13L- vs. Davd Schweikert +D
AZ-03 (R+6, R John Shadegg 1994, RSC), 79%, 14L- vs. Bob Lord ++R
[AZ-02 (R+9, R Trent Franks 2002, RSC), 78%,14L]- vs. John Thrasher

NV- Prez R+1, 65%,20L (67%, Obama +2.3%)
NV-03 (D+1, R Jon Porter 2002, MSP), 69%,16L,6A- vs. Dana Titus Toss
NV-02 (R+8, R Dean Heller 2006), 75%,15L- vs. Jill Derby ++R

CA-
CA-11 (R+3, D Jerry McNerney 2006), 64%,20L,9A - vs. Dean Andal +D
CA-50 (R+5, R Brian Bilbray 2006, RSC), 66%,19L,10A - vs. Nick Leibham ++R
CA-04 (R+11, R John Doolittle*) - Tom McClintock vs. Charles Brown ++R
CA-26 (R+4, R David Dreier 1980, MSP), 53%,24L,15A - vs. Russ Warner W
CA-46 (R+6, R Dana Rohrabacher 1988, RSC), 63%,17L,15A - vs. Debbie Cook W
CA-45 (R+3, R Mary Bono Mack 1998, MSP), 50%,38L - vs. Julie Bornstein W
[CA-24 (R+5, R Elton Gallegly 1986), 69%,22L] - vs. Marta Ann Jorgenson
[CA-44 (R+6, R Ken Calvert 1992, MSP), 51%,35L] - vs. Bill Hedrick
[CA-25 (R+7, R Howard McKeon 1992, RSC), 57%,27L] - vs. Jackie Conaway
[CA-40 (R+8, R Ed Royce 1992, RSC), 49%,30L,16A] - vs. Christina Avalos
[CA-48 (R+8, R John Campbell 2005, RSC), 68%,15L,13A] - vs. Steve Young
[CA-41 (R+9, R Jerry Lewis 1978, MSP), 64%,23L] - vs. Tim Prince
[CA-42 (R+10, R Gary Miller 1998, RSC), 54%,24L,16A] - vs. Ed Chau
[CA-49 (R+10, R Darrell Issa 2000, RSC), 58%, 30L] - vs. Robert Hamilton
[CA-21 (R+13, R Devin Nunes 2000), 46%,43L] - vs. Larry Johnson

OR- Sen D+1, R Gordon Smith- vs. Jeff Merkley (53% D, Merkley +0.4)
OR-05 (D+1, D Darlene Hooley*), 84%,10L - Kurt Schrader (D) vs. Mike Erickson (R) +D

WA-
WA-08 (D+2, R Dave Reichert 2004), 82%,8A- vs. Darcy Burner Toss
[WA-05 (R+7, R Cathy McMorris 2004, RSC)]- vs. Mark Mays

AK- Sen R+14, R Ted Stevens vs. Mark Begich, 68%,15NA (67% R, Begich +3.1)
AK-AL (R+14, R Don Young), 68%,15NA- ? (R) vs. Ethan Berkowitz (D) Toss

HI-