McCain Loses Big in Major Counties

From the preliminary results of the 2008 elections, it seems that McCain has lost big in urban and suburban America.

The 276 counties with 2000 Census populations of over 200,000 went for Obama, 203 to 73. In the 112 counties with populations of over 500,000, Obama won 98 and McCain won only 14. Of the 34 with populations of over a million, McCain won only three: Maricopa County (Phoenix), Orange County (Anaheim), and Tarrant County (Fort Worth).

The counties with over a million people contain 70.2 million people, 25.0% of the US population. This fraction expands to 125.5 million (44.6%) in counties with over 500,000 people and 177.8 million (63.2%) in counties with over 200,000 people. Thus, the area covered here is actually a majority of the population of the United States.

The geographical distribution of McCain wins makes it even worse for the Republicans- few of the major counties won by McCain are in the northern half of the United States.

In the Northeast, McCain won no major counties in New England, winning only one small rural county in Maine. In the corridor part of the Northeast, McCain won Richmond County (Staten Island) in New York, Monmouth County (west of Newark) and Ocean and Morris Counties (between Staten Island and Atlantic City) in the New Jersey suburbs of New York City, and Ann Arundel County (Annapolis) and Harford County (north of Baltimore) in Maryland. Farther to the west, McCain won Lancaster County, York County, and Cumberland County (west of Harrisburg) in the Susquehanna Valley, Westmoreland and Washington Counties in the Pittsburgh area, and Oneida County (Utica) in upstate New York. Only two of these counties, Ocean and Monmouth, have populations of over 500,000.

The Midwest wasn't any better for McCain. His wins were Butler County (north of Cincinnati) in Ohio, Ottawa County (west of Grand Rapids) in Michigan, Allen County (Fort Wayne) in Indiana, Waukesha County (west of Milwaukee) in Wisconsin, Anoka County (north of Minneapolis) in Minnesota, St. Clair County (north of St. Louis) and Greene County (Springfield, in the Ozarks) in Missouri, and Sedgwick County (Wichita) in Kansas. None of these counties have populations over 500,000.

The West also wasn't too good. McCain wins were Ada County (Boise) in Idaho, Salt Lake County, Utah County (Provo), and Davis County (north of Salt Lake City) in Utah, El Paso County (Colorado Springs) in Colorado, Maricopa County (Phoenix) in Arizona, Orange County (Anaheim), Fresno County, Kern County (Bakersfield), Tulare County (between Bakersfield and Fresno), and Placer County (north of Sacramento) in California, Spokane County and Yakima County in Washington, and the City of Anchorage in Alaska. Only Maricopa (population 3.1 million), Orange (population 2.8 million), Salt Lake, Kern, Fresno, and El Paso Counties have populations over 500,000.

The South was McCain's strongest region. There, he won Kanawha County (Charleston) in West Virginia, City of Virginia Beach and Chesterfield County (between Richmond and Petersburg) in Virginia, Greenville County, Spartanburg County, and Lexington County (west of Columbia) in South Carolina, Cobb and Gwinnett Counties (Atlanta area) in Georgia, 12 major counties in Florida, which are Duval (also known as the City of Jacksonville), Polk (between Orlando and Tampa), Brevard (the Space Coast), Lee (Ft. Myers), Seminole (north of Orlando), Pasco (north of Tampa), Sarasota, Escambia (Pensacola), Manatee (between Tampa and Sarasota), Marion (Ocala), Collier (Naples), and Lake (west of Orlando), Mobile County and Madison County (Huntsville) in Alabama, Knox County (Knoxville) and Hamilton County (Chattanooga) in Tennessee, Jefferson Parish (west of New Orleans) in Louisiana, Oklahoma County (Oklahoma City), Tulsa County, and Cleveland County (south of Oklahoma City) in Oklahoma, and 12 major counties in Texas, which are Tarrant County (Ft. Worth), Collin County (north of Dallas), Denton County (north of Ft. Worth), Fort Bend County (southwest of Houston), Nueces County (Corpus Christi), Montgomery County (north of Houston), Galveston County, Williamson County (north of Austin), Lubbock County, Brazoria County (south of Houston), Bell County (between Waco and Austin), and McLennan County (Waco). Those over 500,000 were Tarrant County (population 1.4 million) in Texas, Duval County in Florida, Oklahoma County and Tulsa Counties in Oklahoma, and Cobb and Gwinett Counties in Georgia.

It gets even worse when margin of victory is examined. In the counties with over 500,000 people, McCain wins of over 10% were only recorded in Maricopa County (Phoenix) with an 11% margin, Tarrant County (Ft. Worth) with a 12% margin, Kern County (Bakersfield) with a 19% margin, Oklahoma County (Oklahoma City) with a 17% margin, Tulsa County with a 25% margin, El Paso County (Colorado Springs) with a 19% margin, and shockingly, Ocean County (north of Atlantic City) with an 18% margin. 37 additional counties were won by McCain by a 10% margin in the 200,000 to 500,000 category. McCain blowouts with a 20% victory margin were rare, with only 21 counties in this category. Only Ottawa County (west of Grand Rapids) in Michigan, Butler County (north of Cincinnati) in Ohio, Waukesha County (west of Milwaukee) in Wisconsin, and Utah County (Provo) and Davis County (north of Salt Lake City) in Utah were wins of over 20% outside the South.

In contrast, a lot of the Obama wins were blowouts. Obama won 54 of the 112 counties with populations over 500,000 with margins of over 20%. The only one which was a McCain victory on this scale was Tulsa County. As stated before, these 112 counties contain 44.6% of the population of the United States. These 54 Obama blowouts included almost every major metropolitan county in the United States.

In the Northeast, the Obama blowouts, proceeding south along the coast, were Suffolk County (Boston) with three suburban counties, Middlesex, Essex, and Bristol, Providence County in Rhode Island, Hartford and New Haven Counties in Connecticut, four of the five boroughs of New York City (McCain actually won Staten Island) with suburban Westchester County in New York and three New Jersey counties, Hudson County (Jersey City), Union County (Newark) and Middlesex County (between Newark and Trenton), the City of Philadelphia with three suburban counties, Camden in New Jersey and Montgomery and Delaware in Pennsylvania, New Castle County (Wilmington) in Delaware, the City of Baltimore, and finally Washington DC with both Maryland suburban counties, Montgomery and Prince George's.

In the Midwest, the Obama blowouts were Cuyahoga County (Cleveland) in Ohio, Wayne County (Detroit) in Michigan, Marion County (also known as the City of Indianapolis) in Indiana, Cook County (Chicago) in Illinois, Milwaukee County in Wisconsin, Hennepin County (Minneapolis) and Ramsey County (St. Paul) in Minnesota, and St. Louis County (which is suburban- St. Louis city has less than 500,000 people) and Jackson County (Kansas City) in Missouri.

In the west, the Obama blowouts were the City of Denver in Colorado, Bernalillo County (Albuquerque) in New Mexico, Los Angleles County and all four major Bay Area counties (City of San Francisco, San Mateo County, Santa Clara County, Alameda County, and Contra Costa County) in California, Multnomah County (Portland) in Oregon, King County (Seattle) in Washington, and Honolulu County (the island of O'ahu) in Hawaii.

Even the South had Obama blowouts. These were Mecklenburg County (Charlotte) in North Carolina, Fulton County (Atlanta) with suburban DeKalb County in Georgia, Broward (Ft. Lauderdale) and Palm Beach Counties in South Florida, Shelby County (Memphis) and Davison County (also known as the City of Nashville) in Tennessee, and in Texas, Travis County (Austin), El Paso County, and Hidalgo County (McAllen, at the southern tip).

Judging from these results, the Republican Party needs to make a serious effort to regain voters in the urban areas of the United States. Even the suburban counties are leaving the party. But they will encounter vicious opposition from the "base", which often seems to view large urban populations as not being part of "real" America. For the next four years, President Obama needs to be used as a reminder by those concerned with the future prospects of the Republican Party to the "base" that cities are real when it counts- on Election Day.