More Fun With the Partisan Voting Index-- Red or Blue Tendencies

In previous posts, I talked about seats with a strong Republican or Democratic tendencies. This post is about seats with a smaller deviation from the norm- seats with 5% to 9% away from average. The numbers after the incumbent name and party affiliation are percentages of non-Latino white, black, Latino, and Asian people. First, 68 seats have R+5 to R+9. Of these, Republicans hold a 42-26 advantage.

The Northeast has 92 House seats, of which 4 are R+5 to R+9. NY-29 is rated competitive. Of the 2 Democratic-held seats, PA-10 is rated as competitive but PA-17 is rated as safe Democratic.

NY-29 (R+5): Kuhl (R)- 93, 3, 1, 2
NJ-11 (R+6): Frelinghuysen (R)- 83, 3, 7, 6
PA-10 (R+8): Carney (D)- 95, 2, 1, 0
PA-17 (R+7): Holden (D)- 87, 7, 3, 1

The Midwest has 100 House seats, of which 21 are R+5 to R+9. IL-18, MN-06, MO-06, and MO-09 are rated competitive. Of the 7 Democratic-held seats, OH-18, IN-08, IN-09, IL-08, IL-14, and KS-02 are rated competitive but MN-07 is rated as safe Democratic.

OH-07 (R+6): Hobson (R)- 89, 7, 1, 1
OH-18 (R+6): Space (D)- 96, 2, 1, 0
MI-02 (R+9): Hoekstra (R)- 87, 4, 5, 1
MI-03 (R+9): Ehlers (R)- 82, 8, 6, 2
IN-08 (R+9): Ellsworth (D)- 94, 4, 1, 1
IN-09 (R+7): Hill (D)- 94, 2, 2, 1
IL-08 (R+5): Bean (D)- 79, 3, 11, 6
IL-13 (R+5): Biggert (R)- 82, 5, 5, 7
IL-14 (R+5): Foster (D)- 74, 5, 18, 2
IL-15 (R+6): Johnson (R)- 88, 6, 2, 2
IL-18 (R+5): LaHood (R)- 90, 6, 2, 1
IL-19 (R+8): Shimkus (R)- 94, 3, 1, 0
WI-06 (R+5): Petri (R)- 94, 1, 2, 1
MN-06 (R+5): Bachmann (R)- 95, 1, 1, 1
MN-07 (R+6): Peterson (D)- 93, 0, 3, 1
IA-05 (R+8): King (R)- 94, 1, 4, 1
MO-02 (R+9): Akin (R)- 93, 2, 1, 2
MO-06 (R+5): Graves (R)- 92, 3, 2, 1
MO-09 (R+7): Hulshof (R)- 93, 4, 1, 1
NE-02 (R+9): Terry (R)- 80, 10, 6, 2
KS-02 (R+7): Boyda (D)- 87, 5, 4, 1

The South has 145 House seats, of which 26 are R+5 to R+9. VA-02, WV-02, FL-21, LA-04 are rated competitive. Of the 11 Democratic-held seats, NC-11, GA-08, AL-05, LA-06, and TX-23 are rated competitive but VA-10, WV-01, SC-05, KY-06, LA-03, OK-02 are rated as safe Democratic.

VA-01 (R+9): Wittman (R)- 75, 18, 3, 2
VA-02 (R+6): Drake (R)- 67, 21, 4, 4
VA-04 (R+5): Forbes (R)- 62, 33, 2, 1
VA-05 (R+6): Goode (R)- 72, 24, 2, 1
VA-09 (R+7): Boucher (D)- 93, 4, 1, 1
VA-10 (R+5): Wolf (R)- 77, 7, 7, 7
WV-01 (R+6): Mollohan (D)- 96, 2, 1, 1
WV-02 (R+5): Capito (R)- 94, 4, 1, 1
NC-11 (R+7): Shuler (D)- 90, 5, 3, 0
SC-02 (R+9): Wilson (R)- 68, 23, 3, 1
SC-05 (R+6): Spratt (D)- 64, 32, 2, 1
KY-05 (R+8): Rogers (R)- 97, 1, 1, 0
KY-06 (R+7): Chandler (D)- 87, 8, 2, 1
TN-03 (R+8): Wamp (R)- 85, 11, 2, 1
GA-08 (R+8): Marshall (D)- 83, 13, 2, 1
AL-05 (R+6): Cramer (D)- 78, 17, 2, 1
FL-05 (R+5): Brown-Waite (R)- 88, 5, 6, 1
FL-06 (R+8): Stearns (R)- 79, 12, 5, 2
FL-12 (R+5): Putnam (R)- 72, 13, 12, 1
FL-21 (R+6): L. Diaz-Balart (R)- 21, 7, 70, 2
LA-03 (R+5): Melancon (D)- 70, 25, 2, 1
LA-04 (R+7): McCrery (R)- 62, 33, 2, 1
LA-06 (R+7): Cazayoux (D)- 63, 33, 2, 1
LA-07 (R+7): Boustany (R)- 72, 25, 1, 1
OK-02 (R+5): Boren (D)- 70, 4, 2, 0
TX-23 (R+4): Rodriguez (D)- 41, 2, 55, 1

The West has 98 House seats, of which 17 are R+5 to R+9. NM-02, AZ-03, NV-02 are rated competitive. Of the 6 Democratic-held seats, NC-11, GA-08, AL-05, LA-06, and TX-23 are rated competitive but CO-03 are rated as safe Democratic.

CO-03 (R+6): Salazar (D)- 75, 1, 21, 0
CO-04 (R+9): Musgrave (R)- 79, 1, 17, 1
NM-02 (R+6): Pearce (R)- 44, 2, 47, 1
AZ-02 (R+9): Franks (R)- 78, 2, 14, 2
AZ-03 (R+6): Shadegg (R)- 79, 2, 14, 2
NV-02 (R+8): Heller (R)- 75, 2, 15, 3
CA-03 (R+7): Lungren (R)- 74, 4, 11, 6
CA-24 (R+5): Gallegly (R)- 69, 2, 22, 4
CA-25 (R+7): McKeon (R)- 57, 8, 27, 4
CA-40 (R+8): Royce (R)- 49, 2, 30, 16
CA-41 (R+9): Lewis (R)- 64, 5, 23, 4
CA-44 (R+6): Calvert (R)- 51, 5, 35, 5
CA-46 (R+6): Rohrabacher (R)- 63, 1, 17, 15
CA-48 (R+8): Campbell (R)- 68, 1, 15, 13
CA-50 (R+5): Bilbray (R)- 66, 2, 19, 10
CA-52 (R+9): Hunter (R)- 73, 4, 14, 5
WA-05 (R+7): Rodgers (R)- 88, 1, 5, 2

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49 seats have D+5 to D+9. Of these, Democrats hold an impressive 47-2 advantage.

The Northeast has 92 House seats, of which 19 are D+5 to D+9. ME-01, MA-05, and CT-02 are rated competitive. Of the 2 Republican-held seats, CT-04 is rated as competitive but DE is rated as safe Republican.

ME-01 (D+6)- Allen (D)- 96, 1, 1, 1
VT (D+8)- Welch (D)- 96, 0, 1, 1
MA-05 (D+9)- Tsongas (D)- 80, 2, 12, 5
MA-10 (D+8)- Delahunt (D)- 92, 2, 1, 3
CT-02 (D+8)- Courtney (D)- 89, 3, 4, 2
CT-04 (D+5)- Shays (R)- 71, 11, 13, 3
NY-02 (D+7)- Israel (D)- 72, 10, 14, 3
NY-04 (D+9)- McCarthy (D)- 62, 18, 14, 4
NY-21 (D+9)- McNulty (D)- 85, 7, 3, 2
NY-22 (D+6)- Hinchey (D)- 80, 8, 8, 3
NY-27 (D+7)- Higgins (D)- 89, 4, 5, 1
NJ-12 (D+8)- Holt (D)- 72, 11, 5, 9
PA-11 (D+5)- Kanjorski (D)- 93, 2, 3, 1
PA-12 (D+5)- Murtha (D)- 95, 3, 1, 0
PA-13 (D+8)- Schwartz (D)- 86, 6, 3, 4
DE (D+7)- Castle (R)- 72, 19, 5, 2
MD-02 (D+8)- Ruppersburger (D)- 66, 27, 2, 2
MD-03 (D+7)- Sarbanes (D)- 76, 16, 3, 3
MD-05 (D+9)- Hoyer (D)- 60, 30, 3, 4

The Midwest has 100 House seats, of which 11 are D+5 to D+9. IN-07 is rated competitive. None of these seats are in Republican hands.

OH-09 (D+9)- Kaptur (D)- 80, 14, 4, 1
OH-10 (D+6)- Kucinich (D)- 87, 4, 5, 2
OH-13 (D+6)- Sutton (D)- 82, 12, 4, 1
IN-01 (D+8)- Visclosky (D)- 70, 18, 10, 1
IN-07 (D+9)- Carson (D)- 63, 29, 4, 1
IL-12 (D+5)- Costello (D)- 80, 16, 2, 1
IL-17 (D+5)- Hare (D)- 87, 7, 4, 1
MN-08 (D+4)- Oberstar (D)- 95, 1, 1, 0
IA-01 (D+5)- Braley (D)- 92, 4, 2, 1
IA-02 (D+7)- Loebsack (D)- 92, 2, 3, 2
MO-03 (D+8)- Boswell (D)- 90, 3, 3, 2

The South has 145 House seats, of which 6 are D+5 to D+9. None are rated competitive. None of these seats are in Republican hands.

NC-01 (D+9)- Butterfield (D)- 44, 50, 3, 0
NC-04 (D+6)- Price (D)- 69, 21, 5, 4
TN-05 (D+6)- Cooper (D)- 68, 23, 4, 2
TX-16 (D+9)- Reyes (D)- 17, 3, 78, 1
TX-20 (D+8)- Gonzalez (D)- 23, 7, 67, 1
TX-29 (D+8)- Green (D)- 22, 10, 66, 1

The West has 98 House seats, of which 13 are D+5 to D+9. None are rated competitive. None of these seats are in Republican hands.

CO-02 (D+8)- M. Udall (D)- 79, 1, 15, 3
NM-03 (D+6)- T. Udall (D)- 41, 1, 36, 1
NV-01 (D+1)- Berkley (D)- 52, 12, 28, 5
CA-10 (D+9)- Tauscher (D)- 65, 6, 15, 9
CA-20 (D+5)- Costa (D)- 21, 7, 63, 6
CA-23 (D+9)- Capps (D)- 49, 2, 42, 5
CA-47 (D+5)- L. Sanchez (D)- 17, 1, 65, 14
CA-51 (D+7)- Filner (D)- 21, 9, 53, 12
OR-01 (D+6)- Wu (D)- 81, 1, 9, 5
WA-01 (D+7)- Inslee (D)- 82, 2, 4, 8
WA-06 (D+6)- Dicks (D)- 78, 6, 5, 4
WA-09 (D+6)- Smith (D)- 73, 6, 7, 7
HI-01 (D+7)- Abercrombie (D)- 18, 2, 5, 54