The final result was short of a total disaster for the Republicans- Democrats gained "only" 21 seats, making the final total 257 to 178. However, the geographical breakdown concentrates Republicans in the South, with the Republicans having only a three-seat loss in the South and an 18-seat loss outside the South. A stunning 81 of the 178 Republican seats (46%) in the new House are in the South, which has exactly one-third (145) of the House seats.
The Republican membership is conspicuously white. Out of more than 70 nonwhite House members (I don't have an exact count) only five are Republicans. These are three Latinos, Mario and Lincoln Diaz-Balart and Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, all of Florida, one Native American, Tom Cole of Oklahoma, and one Asian, Anh Quang Cao of Louisiana, who was newly elected this year in New Orleans. The New Orleans seat is the only majority African-American district held by a Republican. Three Republicans, Nick Rahall (WV), Charles Boustany (LA), and Darrell Issa (CA) are Arab-Americans, but this is counted as white in the census. All of the minority Republican members are Christians, although some of the white Republican members are Jews and one is widely rumored to be a Scientologist.
The seats that switched, by region:
Northeast: Democratic pickup of seven seats, giving a crushing 75-17 Democratic advantage and a 22-0 shutout in New England. The 17 remaining Republicans are three in New York (out of 29), five in New Jersey (out of 13), seven in Pennsylvania (out of 19), and one each in Delaware and Maryland (out of 9). The pickups were the seat for southeastern Connecticut (CT-04), three New York seats, which were NY-13 (Staten Island), NY-25 (Syracuse), and NY-29 (Rochester area and southwestern part around Elmira and Jamestown), a seat in southern New Jersey (NJ-03), the northwest Pennsylvania seat (PA-03), and the seat for eastern Maryland and Annapolis (MD-01).
Midwest: Democratic pickup of five seats, giving a 55-45 Democratic advantage. Six seats went from Republican to Democratic, which were three Ohio seats, OH-01 (Cincinnati), OH-15 (Columbus), and OH-16 (Canton), two Michigan seats, MI-07 (Battle Creek and Jackson) and MI-09 (northwest Detroit area), and one Illinois seat, IL-11 (Joliet and rural areas west to near Quad Cities). A Kansas seat, KS-02 (eastern Kansas except Kansas City area and Wichita area), was the only seat outside the South to be gained by the Republicans.
West: Democratic pickup of six seats, giving a massive 63-35 Democratic advantage. The switching seats were one seat in Idaho, ID-01 (Boise and western half), one in Colorado, CO-04 (Fort Collins, Greeley, and rural eastern part of the state), two in New Mexico, NM-01 (Albuquerque) and NM-02 (southern), one in Arizona, AZ-01 (northern plateau including Flagstaff, Prescott, and Sedona), and one in Nevada, NV-03 (in the Las Vegas area).
South: Democratic pickup of three seats, giving the Republicans an 81-64 advantage. The Republican advantage, in percentage terms (56%) is smaller than the Democratic advantage in the Northeast (82%) or the West (64%) and is just slightly larger than the Democratic advantage in the Midwest (55%). Of the 14 southern states, the delegations from West Virginia (2-1), Virginia (6-5), North Carolina (8-5), Mississippi (3-1), and Arkansas (3-1) actually have Democratic majorities. In comparison, out of the other 36 states, only Missouri (5-4), Nebraska (3-0), Kansas (3-1), Montana (one), Wyoming (one), Utah (2-1), and Alaska (one) have Republican majorities with a 1-1 tie in Idaho. The seven seats going from Republican to Democratic were three in Virginia, VA-02 (Virginia Beach), VA-05 (western area around Charlottesville, Lynchburg, and Danville), and VA-11 (Washington DC suburban), one in North Carolina, NC-08 (part of Charlotte with Fayetteville), two in Florida, FL-08 and FL-24 (both in Orlando and the Space Coast), and one in Alabama, AL-02 (Montgomery). The four switching the other way were one in Florida, FL-16 (part of both coasts in southern Florida with much of the Everglades), two in Louisiana, LA-02 (New Orleans) and LA-06 (Baton Rouge), and one in Texas, TX-22 (southern Houston around the Johnson Space Center and west suburbs).
Monday, December 8, 2008
Friday, November 14, 2008
McCain Loses Big in Major Counties
From the preliminary results of the 2008 elections, it seems that McCain has lost big in urban and suburban America.
The 276 counties with 2000 Census populations of over 200,000 went for Obama, 203 to 73. In the 112 counties with populations of over 500,000, Obama won 98 and McCain won only 14. Of the 34 with populations of over a million, McCain won only three: Maricopa County (Phoenix), Orange County (Anaheim), and Tarrant County (Fort Worth).
The counties with over a million people contain 70.2 million people, 25.0% of the US population. This fraction expands to 125.5 million (44.6%) in counties with over 500,000 people and 177.8 million (63.2%) in counties with over 200,000 people. Thus, the area covered here is actually a majority of the population of the United States.
The geographical distribution of McCain wins makes it even worse for the Republicans- few of the major counties won by McCain are in the northern half of the United States.
In the Northeast, McCain won no major counties in New England, winning only one small rural county in Maine. In the corridor part of the Northeast, McCain won Richmond County (Staten Island) in New York, Monmouth County (west of Newark) and Ocean and Morris Counties (between Staten Island and Atlantic City) in the New Jersey suburbs of New York City, and Ann Arundel County (Annapolis) and Harford County (north of Baltimore) in Maryland. Farther to the west, McCain won Lancaster County, York County, and Cumberland County (west of Harrisburg) in the Susquehanna Valley, Westmoreland and Washington Counties in the Pittsburgh area, and Oneida County (Utica) in upstate New York. Only two of these counties, Ocean and Monmouth, have populations of over 500,000.
The Midwest wasn't any better for McCain. His wins were Butler County (north of Cincinnati) in Ohio, Ottawa County (west of Grand Rapids) in Michigan, Allen County (Fort Wayne) in Indiana, Waukesha County (west of Milwaukee) in Wisconsin, Anoka County (north of Minneapolis) in Minnesota, St. Clair County (north of St. Louis) and Greene County (Springfield, in the Ozarks) in Missouri, and Sedgwick County (Wichita) in Kansas. None of these counties have populations over 500,000.
The West also wasn't too good. McCain wins were Ada County (Boise) in Idaho, Salt Lake County, Utah County (Provo), and Davis County (north of Salt Lake City) in Utah, El Paso County (Colorado Springs) in Colorado, Maricopa County (Phoenix) in Arizona, Orange County (Anaheim), Fresno County, Kern County (Bakersfield), Tulare County (between Bakersfield and Fresno), and Placer County (north of Sacramento) in California, Spokane County and Yakima County in Washington, and the City of Anchorage in Alaska. Only Maricopa (population 3.1 million), Orange (population 2.8 million), Salt Lake, Kern, Fresno, and El Paso Counties have populations over 500,000.
The South was McCain's strongest region. There, he won Kanawha County (Charleston) in West Virginia, City of Virginia Beach and Chesterfield County (between Richmond and Petersburg) in Virginia, Greenville County, Spartanburg County, and Lexington County (west of Columbia) in South Carolina, Cobb and Gwinnett Counties (Atlanta area) in Georgia, 12 major counties in Florida, which are Duval (also known as the City of Jacksonville), Polk (between Orlando and Tampa), Brevard (the Space Coast), Lee (Ft. Myers), Seminole (north of Orlando), Pasco (north of Tampa), Sarasota, Escambia (Pensacola), Manatee (between Tampa and Sarasota), Marion (Ocala), Collier (Naples), and Lake (west of Orlando), Mobile County and Madison County (Huntsville) in Alabama, Knox County (Knoxville) and Hamilton County (Chattanooga) in Tennessee, Jefferson Parish (west of New Orleans) in Louisiana, Oklahoma County (Oklahoma City), Tulsa County, and Cleveland County (south of Oklahoma City) in Oklahoma, and 12 major counties in Texas, which are Tarrant County (Ft. Worth), Collin County (north of Dallas), Denton County (north of Ft. Worth), Fort Bend County (southwest of Houston), Nueces County (Corpus Christi), Montgomery County (north of Houston), Galveston County, Williamson County (north of Austin), Lubbock County, Brazoria County (south of Houston), Bell County (between Waco and Austin), and McLennan County (Waco). Those over 500,000 were Tarrant County (population 1.4 million) in Texas, Duval County in Florida, Oklahoma County and Tulsa Counties in Oklahoma, and Cobb and Gwinett Counties in Georgia.
It gets even worse when margin of victory is examined. In the counties with over 500,000 people, McCain wins of over 10% were only recorded in Maricopa County (Phoenix) with an 11% margin, Tarrant County (Ft. Worth) with a 12% margin, Kern County (Bakersfield) with a 19% margin, Oklahoma County (Oklahoma City) with a 17% margin, Tulsa County with a 25% margin, El Paso County (Colorado Springs) with a 19% margin, and shockingly, Ocean County (north of Atlantic City) with an 18% margin. 37 additional counties were won by McCain by a 10% margin in the 200,000 to 500,000 category. McCain blowouts with a 20% victory margin were rare, with only 21 counties in this category. Only Ottawa County (west of Grand Rapids) in Michigan, Butler County (north of Cincinnati) in Ohio, Waukesha County (west of Milwaukee) in Wisconsin, and Utah County (Provo) and Davis County (north of Salt Lake City) in Utah were wins of over 20% outside the South.
In contrast, a lot of the Obama wins were blowouts. Obama won 54 of the 112 counties with populations over 500,000 with margins of over 20%. The only one which was a McCain victory on this scale was Tulsa County. As stated before, these 112 counties contain 44.6% of the population of the United States. These 54 Obama blowouts included almost every major metropolitan county in the United States.
In the Northeast, the Obama blowouts, proceeding south along the coast, were Suffolk County (Boston) with three suburban counties, Middlesex, Essex, and Bristol, Providence County in Rhode Island, Hartford and New Haven Counties in Connecticut, four of the five boroughs of New York City (McCain actually won Staten Island) with suburban Westchester County in New York and three New Jersey counties, Hudson County (Jersey City), Union County (Newark) and Middlesex County (between Newark and Trenton), the City of Philadelphia with three suburban counties, Camden in New Jersey and Montgomery and Delaware in Pennsylvania, New Castle County (Wilmington) in Delaware, the City of Baltimore, and finally Washington DC with both Maryland suburban counties, Montgomery and Prince George's.
In the Midwest, the Obama blowouts were Cuyahoga County (Cleveland) in Ohio, Wayne County (Detroit) in Michigan, Marion County (also known as the City of Indianapolis) in Indiana, Cook County (Chicago) in Illinois, Milwaukee County in Wisconsin, Hennepin County (Minneapolis) and Ramsey County (St. Paul) in Minnesota, and St. Louis County (which is suburban- St. Louis city has less than 500,000 people) and Jackson County (Kansas City) in Missouri.
In the west, the Obama blowouts were the City of Denver in Colorado, Bernalillo County (Albuquerque) in New Mexico, Los Angleles County and all four major Bay Area counties (City of San Francisco, San Mateo County, Santa Clara County, Alameda County, and Contra Costa County) in California, Multnomah County (Portland) in Oregon, King County (Seattle) in Washington, and Honolulu County (the island of O'ahu) in Hawaii.
Even the South had Obama blowouts. These were Mecklenburg County (Charlotte) in North Carolina, Fulton County (Atlanta) with suburban DeKalb County in Georgia, Broward (Ft. Lauderdale) and Palm Beach Counties in South Florida, Shelby County (Memphis) and Davison County (also known as the City of Nashville) in Tennessee, and in Texas, Travis County (Austin), El Paso County, and Hidalgo County (McAllen, at the southern tip).
Judging from these results, the Republican Party needs to make a serious effort to regain voters in the urban areas of the United States. Even the suburban counties are leaving the party. But they will encounter vicious opposition from the "base", which often seems to view large urban populations as not being part of "real" America. For the next four years, President Obama needs to be used as a reminder by those concerned with the future prospects of the Republican Party to the "base" that cities are real when it counts- on Election Day.
The 276 counties with 2000 Census populations of over 200,000 went for Obama, 203 to 73. In the 112 counties with populations of over 500,000, Obama won 98 and McCain won only 14. Of the 34 with populations of over a million, McCain won only three: Maricopa County (Phoenix), Orange County (Anaheim), and Tarrant County (Fort Worth).
The counties with over a million people contain 70.2 million people, 25.0% of the US population. This fraction expands to 125.5 million (44.6%) in counties with over 500,000 people and 177.8 million (63.2%) in counties with over 200,000 people. Thus, the area covered here is actually a majority of the population of the United States.
The geographical distribution of McCain wins makes it even worse for the Republicans- few of the major counties won by McCain are in the northern half of the United States.
In the Northeast, McCain won no major counties in New England, winning only one small rural county in Maine. In the corridor part of the Northeast, McCain won Richmond County (Staten Island) in New York, Monmouth County (west of Newark) and Ocean and Morris Counties (between Staten Island and Atlantic City) in the New Jersey suburbs of New York City, and Ann Arundel County (Annapolis) and Harford County (north of Baltimore) in Maryland. Farther to the west, McCain won Lancaster County, York County, and Cumberland County (west of Harrisburg) in the Susquehanna Valley, Westmoreland and Washington Counties in the Pittsburgh area, and Oneida County (Utica) in upstate New York. Only two of these counties, Ocean and Monmouth, have populations of over 500,000.
The Midwest wasn't any better for McCain. His wins were Butler County (north of Cincinnati) in Ohio, Ottawa County (west of Grand Rapids) in Michigan, Allen County (Fort Wayne) in Indiana, Waukesha County (west of Milwaukee) in Wisconsin, Anoka County (north of Minneapolis) in Minnesota, St. Clair County (north of St. Louis) and Greene County (Springfield, in the Ozarks) in Missouri, and Sedgwick County (Wichita) in Kansas. None of these counties have populations over 500,000.
The West also wasn't too good. McCain wins were Ada County (Boise) in Idaho, Salt Lake County, Utah County (Provo), and Davis County (north of Salt Lake City) in Utah, El Paso County (Colorado Springs) in Colorado, Maricopa County (Phoenix) in Arizona, Orange County (Anaheim), Fresno County, Kern County (Bakersfield), Tulare County (between Bakersfield and Fresno), and Placer County (north of Sacramento) in California, Spokane County and Yakima County in Washington, and the City of Anchorage in Alaska. Only Maricopa (population 3.1 million), Orange (population 2.8 million), Salt Lake, Kern, Fresno, and El Paso Counties have populations over 500,000.
The South was McCain's strongest region. There, he won Kanawha County (Charleston) in West Virginia, City of Virginia Beach and Chesterfield County (between Richmond and Petersburg) in Virginia, Greenville County, Spartanburg County, and Lexington County (west of Columbia) in South Carolina, Cobb and Gwinnett Counties (Atlanta area) in Georgia, 12 major counties in Florida, which are Duval (also known as the City of Jacksonville), Polk (between Orlando and Tampa), Brevard (the Space Coast), Lee (Ft. Myers), Seminole (north of Orlando), Pasco (north of Tampa), Sarasota, Escambia (Pensacola), Manatee (between Tampa and Sarasota), Marion (Ocala), Collier (Naples), and Lake (west of Orlando), Mobile County and Madison County (Huntsville) in Alabama, Knox County (Knoxville) and Hamilton County (Chattanooga) in Tennessee, Jefferson Parish (west of New Orleans) in Louisiana, Oklahoma County (Oklahoma City), Tulsa County, and Cleveland County (south of Oklahoma City) in Oklahoma, and 12 major counties in Texas, which are Tarrant County (Ft. Worth), Collin County (north of Dallas), Denton County (north of Ft. Worth), Fort Bend County (southwest of Houston), Nueces County (Corpus Christi), Montgomery County (north of Houston), Galveston County, Williamson County (north of Austin), Lubbock County, Brazoria County (south of Houston), Bell County (between Waco and Austin), and McLennan County (Waco). Those over 500,000 were Tarrant County (population 1.4 million) in Texas, Duval County in Florida, Oklahoma County and Tulsa Counties in Oklahoma, and Cobb and Gwinett Counties in Georgia.
It gets even worse when margin of victory is examined. In the counties with over 500,000 people, McCain wins of over 10% were only recorded in Maricopa County (Phoenix) with an 11% margin, Tarrant County (Ft. Worth) with a 12% margin, Kern County (Bakersfield) with a 19% margin, Oklahoma County (Oklahoma City) with a 17% margin, Tulsa County with a 25% margin, El Paso County (Colorado Springs) with a 19% margin, and shockingly, Ocean County (north of Atlantic City) with an 18% margin. 37 additional counties were won by McCain by a 10% margin in the 200,000 to 500,000 category. McCain blowouts with a 20% victory margin were rare, with only 21 counties in this category. Only Ottawa County (west of Grand Rapids) in Michigan, Butler County (north of Cincinnati) in Ohio, Waukesha County (west of Milwaukee) in Wisconsin, and Utah County (Provo) and Davis County (north of Salt Lake City) in Utah were wins of over 20% outside the South.
In contrast, a lot of the Obama wins were blowouts. Obama won 54 of the 112 counties with populations over 500,000 with margins of over 20%. The only one which was a McCain victory on this scale was Tulsa County. As stated before, these 112 counties contain 44.6% of the population of the United States. These 54 Obama blowouts included almost every major metropolitan county in the United States.
In the Northeast, the Obama blowouts, proceeding south along the coast, were Suffolk County (Boston) with three suburban counties, Middlesex, Essex, and Bristol, Providence County in Rhode Island, Hartford and New Haven Counties in Connecticut, four of the five boroughs of New York City (McCain actually won Staten Island) with suburban Westchester County in New York and three New Jersey counties, Hudson County (Jersey City), Union County (Newark) and Middlesex County (between Newark and Trenton), the City of Philadelphia with three suburban counties, Camden in New Jersey and Montgomery and Delaware in Pennsylvania, New Castle County (Wilmington) in Delaware, the City of Baltimore, and finally Washington DC with both Maryland suburban counties, Montgomery and Prince George's.
In the Midwest, the Obama blowouts were Cuyahoga County (Cleveland) in Ohio, Wayne County (Detroit) in Michigan, Marion County (also known as the City of Indianapolis) in Indiana, Cook County (Chicago) in Illinois, Milwaukee County in Wisconsin, Hennepin County (Minneapolis) and Ramsey County (St. Paul) in Minnesota, and St. Louis County (which is suburban- St. Louis city has less than 500,000 people) and Jackson County (Kansas City) in Missouri.
In the west, the Obama blowouts were the City of Denver in Colorado, Bernalillo County (Albuquerque) in New Mexico, Los Angleles County and all four major Bay Area counties (City of San Francisco, San Mateo County, Santa Clara County, Alameda County, and Contra Costa County) in California, Multnomah County (Portland) in Oregon, King County (Seattle) in Washington, and Honolulu County (the island of O'ahu) in Hawaii.
Even the South had Obama blowouts. These were Mecklenburg County (Charlotte) in North Carolina, Fulton County (Atlanta) with suburban DeKalb County in Georgia, Broward (Ft. Lauderdale) and Palm Beach Counties in South Florida, Shelby County (Memphis) and Davison County (also known as the City of Nashville) in Tennessee, and in Texas, Travis County (Austin), El Paso County, and Hidalgo County (McAllen, at the southern tip).
Judging from these results, the Republican Party needs to make a serious effort to regain voters in the urban areas of the United States. Even the suburban counties are leaving the party. But they will encounter vicious opposition from the "base", which often seems to view large urban populations as not being part of "real" America. For the next four years, President Obama needs to be used as a reminder by those concerned with the future prospects of the Republican Party to the "base" that cities are real when it counts- on Election Day.
Wednesday, June 18, 2008
The 2008 Elections- the Condensed Landscape
This is an attempt to make a very condensed summary of potentially competitive Congressional races and states which could be competitive in the presidential election. D+x, R+x, or Even is the PVI index for the district or state, which is a measurement of its partisan orientation in the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections.
For House races, the rating from Swing State Project (July 21, 2008) is given as ++D, +D, Toss, +R, ++R, or W for watch. [] Indicates the race is not considered competitive at all by SSP, but is a Republican seat with a PVI which makes it a potential risk or has a high minority percentage (more than 35%). House seats under each state are listed in order of SSP rating and PVI, with most Democratic first. * means the seat is open. A percentage is the percentage of whites in the district with comments afterward on blacks (B), Latinos (L), Asians (A), or Native Americans/Hawaiians (NA/NH).
For Senate and President, victory likelihoods from FiveThirtyEight.com are given for September 30, 2008 if the percentage is between 10% and 90%.
After each race, major party candidates are listed if available and the nominations are already fixed. Races without a major party opponent are dropped from the list. For incumbents running for re-election a date of first election to Congress is given. RSC means a member of the rightist Republican Study Committee and MSP is the Republican moderate Main Street Partnership.
Northeast- 117 EV (22 Sen, 92 House, 3 DC)
ME
NH- Sen D+1, R Sununu- vs. Jeanne Shaheen (32% R, Shaheen +3.4%)
NH- Prez (71%--Obama +2.8%)
NH-01 (Even, D Carol Shea-Porter 2006) vs. Jeb Bradley +D
VT
MA
RI
CT
CT-05 (D+4, D Christopher Murphy 2006), 80%,11L - vs. David Cappiello ++D
CT-04 (D+5, R Christopher Shays 1987, MSP), 71%,11B,13L - vs. Jim Himes Toss
NY
NY-25 (D+3, R Jim Walsh*, MSP) vs. Dale Sweetland ++D
NY-13 (D+1, R Vito Fossella*), 71%,11B,9A vs. Robert Straniere ++D
NY-24 (R+1, D Michael Arcuri 2006) vs. Richard Hanna ++D
NY-20 (R+3, D Kirsten Gillibrand 2006) vs. Sandy Treadwell +D
NY-26 (R+3, R Tom Reynolds*, RSC) Christopher Lee (R) vs. Alice Kryzan (D) +R
NY-29 (R+5, R Randy Kuhl 2004, MSP) vs. Eric Massa +R
[NY-03 (D+2, R Peter King 1992)] vs. Graham Long
[NY-23 (Even, R John McHugh 1992)] vs. Michael Oot
NJ
NJ-03 (D+3, R Jim Saxton*) - Christopher Myers (R) vs. John Adler (D) +D
NJ-07 (R+1, R Mike Ferguson*), 79%,8A - Leonard Lance (R) vs. Linda Stender (D) Toss
NJ-05 (R+4, R Scott Garrett 2000, RSC), 86%,7A - vs. Dennis Shulman ++R
NJ-04 (R+1, R Chris Smith 1980)]- vs. Joshua Zeitz W
[NJ-11 (R+6, R Rodney Frelinghuysen 1994), 83%,6A] - vs. Tom Wyka
PA- Prez D+2, 84%, 10%B (84%--Obama +6.0%)
PA-08 (D+3, D Patrick Murphy 2006) - vs. Tom Manion ++D
PA-04 (R+3, D Jason Altmire 2006) - vs. Melissa Hart +D
PA-10 (R+8, D Chris Carney) - vs. Chris Hackett +D
PA-11 (D+5, D Paul Kanjorski 1985)- vs. Lou Barletta Toss
PA-03 (R+2, R Phil English 1994) - vs. Kathy Dahlkemper +R
PA-15 (D+2, R Charlie Dent 2004, MSP) - vs. Sam Bennett ++R
PA-06 (D+2, R Jim Gerlach 2002, MSP) - vs. Bob Roggio W
PA-05 (R+10, R Peterson*) - Glenn Thompson (R) vs. Mark McCracken (D) W
[PA-18 (D+2, R Tim Murphy 2002, RSC) - vs. Steve O'Donnell]
MD
MD-01 (R+10, R Wayne Gilchrist*, MSP) - Andy Harris (R) vs. Frank Kratovil (D) +R
DE
[DE-AL (D+7, R Michael Castle 1992, MSP)]- vs. Karen Hartley-Nagle
DC
Midwest- 124 EV, 24 Sen, 100 House
OH- Prez D+1, 84%,11B (67%, Obama +2.0)
OH-18 (R+6, D Zack Space) - vs. Fred Dailey ++D
OH-15 (R+1, R Pryce*, MSP) - Steve Stivers (R) vs. Mary Jo Kilroy (D) Toss
OH-16 (R+4, R Ralph Regula*, MSP) - Kirk Schuring (R) vs. John Boccieri (D) Toss
OH-01 (R+1, R Steve Chabot 1994, RSC), 69%,27B - vs. Steven Driehaus +R
OH-02 (R+13, R Jean Schmidt 2005) - vs. Vicotria Wulsin +R
OH-07 (R+6, R Dave Hobson*, MSP) - Steve Austria (R) vs. Sharen Neuhardt (D) ++R
OH-03 (R+3, R Mike Turner 2002, RSC, MSP), 79%,17B - vs. Jane Mitakides W
[OH-12 (R+1, R Pat Tiberi 2000), 72%,22B] - vs. David Robinson
[OH-14 (R+2, R Steve LaTourette 1994, MSP)] - vs. William O'Neill
[OH-05 (R+10, R Bob Latta 2007, RSC)] - vs. George Mays
MI- Prez D+3, 79%,14%B, (88%, Obama +7.0)
MI-07 (R+2, R Tim Walberg 2006, RSC)- vs. Mark Schauer Toss
MI-09 (Even, R Joe Knollenberg 1992), 81%,6A - vs. Gary Peters +R
[MI-11 (R+1, R Thad McCotter 2002)]- vs. Joseph Larkin
[MI-06 (R+2, R Fred Upton 1986, MSP)]- vs. Don Cooney
[MI-08 (R+2, R Mike Rogers 2000)] - vs. Robert Alexander
[MI-04 (R+3, R Dave Camp, RSC, MSP)] - vs. Andrew Concannon
[MI-10 (R+4, R Candace Miller 2002)] - vs. Robert Denison
[MI-02 (R+9, R Pete Hoekstra 1992, RSC)] - vs. Fred Johnson
[MI-03 (R+9, R Vern Ehlers 1993, MSP)] - vs. Henry Sanchez
IN- Prez R+8 (50%, McCain +0.1%)
IN-09 (R+7, D Baron Hill 2006) - vs. Mike Sodrel +D
IN-03 (R+16, R Mark Souder 1994, RSC) - vs. Mike Montagano ++R
IN-04 (R+17, R Steve Buyer 1992) vs. Nels Ackerson W
IL-
IL-14 (R+5, D Bill Foster 2008), 74%,18L - vs. Jim Oberweis +D
IL-11 (R+1, R Jerry Weller*, MSP) - Debbie Halvorson (D) vs. Marty Ozinga (R) Toss
IL-10 (D+4, R Mark Kirk 2000, MSP), 75%,12L,6A - vs. Daniel Seals +R
IL-06 (R+3, R Peter Roskam 2006, RSC), 75%,12L,8A - vs. Jill Morgenthaler W
IL-18 (R+5, R Ray LaHood*, MSP) - Aaron Schock (R) vs. Colleen Callahan (D) W
IL-13 (R+5, R Judy Biggert 1998, MSP), 82%,7A - vs. Scott Harper W
[IL-16 (R+4, R Donald Manzullo 1992, RSC)] - vs. Bob Abboud
[IL-15 (R+6, R Tim Johnson 2000, MSP)] - vs. Steve Cox
[IL-19 (R+8, R John Shimkus 1996)] - vs. Daniel Davis
WI-
WI-08 (Even, D Steve Kagen 2006)- vs. John Gard +D
[WI-01 (R+2, R Paul Ryan 1998, RSC)]- vs. Marge Krupp
[WI-06 (R+5, R Tom Petri 1979, MSP)]- vs. Roger Kittelson
MN- Sen D+1, R Coleman- vs. Al Franken (61% R, Coleman +1.8)
MN-01 (R+1, D Tim Walz 2006) ++D
MN-03 (R+1, R Jim Ramstad*, MSP) - Erik Paulsen (R) vs. Ashwin Madia (D) Toss
MN-06 (R+5, R Michele Bachmann 2006, RSC) - vs. Elwyn Tinklenberg ++R
MN-02 (R+3, R John Kline 2002, RSC) - vs. Steve Sarvi W
[MN-07 (R+6, D Collin Peterson 1990)] - vs. Glenn Menze
IA-
IA-04 (Even, R Tom Latham 1994)- vs. Becky Greenwald ++R
[IA-05 (R+8, R Steve King 2002, RSC)] - vs. Rob Hubler
MO- Prez R+1, 84%,11B (43%, McCain +0.9)
MO-06 (R+5, R Sam Graves 2000)- vs. Kay Barnes +R
MO-09 (R+7, R Kenny Hulshof*)- Blaine Luetkemayer (R) vs. Judy Baker (D) +R
[MO-02 (R+9, R Todd Akin 2000, RSC)]- vs. Bill Haas
ND- Prez R+13, 92%, 5%NA (14%, McCain +7.2)
SD
NE
NE-02 (R+9, R Lee Terry 1998, RSC) - vs. Jim Esch ++R
KS
KS-02 (R+7, D Nancy Boyda 2006)- vs. Lynn Jenkins +D
KS-04 (R+12, R Todd Tiahrt 1994, RSC) - vs. Donald Betts W
South- 173 EV, 28 Senate, 145 House
WV- Prez R+4 (Obama 22%, McCain +4.8%)
WV-02 (R+5, R Shelley Capito 2000, MSP) - vs. Anne Barth ++R
VA- Sen R+3, R Warner*, 70%,19B- [Senate is Safe Democratic]
VA- Prez (78%, Obama +4.1)
VA-11 (R+1, R Tom Davis*, MSP), 67%,10B,11A - Keith Fimian (R) vs. Gerry Connolly (D) +D
VA-02 (R+6, R Thelma Drake 2004, RSC), 67%, 21B - vs. Glenn Nye +R
VA-10 (R+5, R Frank Wolf 1980), 77%,7A - vs. Judy Feder ++R
VA-05 (R+6, R Virgil Goode 1996, RSC), 72%, 24B - vs. Tom Perriello ++R
[VA-04 (R+5, R Randy Forbes 2001, RSC), 62%,33B] - vs Andrea Miller
NC- Sen R+5, R Dole, 70%,21B- vs. Kay Hagan (51% R, Dole +0.1)
NC- Prez (44%, McCain +0.7)
NC-08 (R+3, R Robin Hayes 1998, RSC), 62%,27B - vs. Larry Kissell +R
NC-10 (R+15, R Patrick McHenry 2004, RSC) - vs. Daniel Johnson W
SC-
SC-02 (R+9, R Joe Wilson 2001, RSC), 68%,23B - vs. Robert Miller W
SC-01 (R+10, R Henry Brown 2000, RSC), 74%, 21B- vs. Linda Ketner W
GA- Prez R+6, 63%,29B (11%, McCain +7.5)
GA-08 (R+8, D Jim Marshall 2002), 83%,13B - vs. Robert Nowak +D
[GA-11 (R+18, R Phil Gingrey 2002, RSC), 62%,28B]- vs. Hugh Gammon
[GA-03 (R+19, R Lynn Westmoreland 2004, RSC), 56%,40B] - vs. Stephen Camp
KY- Sen R+7, R McConnell- vs. Bruce Lunsford (79% R, McConnell +5.5)
KY-03 (D+2, D John Yarmuth 2006), 76%,19B - vs. Anne Northrup +D
KY-02 (R+13, R Ron Lewis*, RSC)- Brett Guthrie (R) vs. David Boswell (D) +R
[KY-01 (R+10, R Ed Whitfield 1994)] - vs. Heather Ryan
TN-
[TN-03 (R+8, R Zach Wamp 1994, RSC)]- vs. Doug Vandagriff
AL-
AL-05 (R+6, D Robert Cramer*), 78%,17B - vs. Wayne Parker +D
AL-02 (R+13, R Terry Everett*), 67%,29B - Jay Love (R) vs. Bobby Bright (D) Toss
AL-03 (R+4, R Mike Rogers 2002), 65%,32B - vs. Joshua Segall ++R
FL-Prez 65%,14B,17L (58%, Obama +1.0%)
FL-16 (R+2, D Tim Mahoney 2006), 82%,10L - vs. Tom Rooney +D
FL-24 (R+3, R Tom Feeney 2002, RSC), 80%,10L - vs. Suzanne Kosmas +R
FL-08 (R+3, R Ric Keller 2000), 70%,18L - vs. Alan Grayson +R
FL-25 (R+4, R Mario Diaz-Balart 2002, RSC), 24%,10B,62L - vs. Joe Garcia +R
FL-21 (R+6, R Lincoln Diaz-Balart 1992), 21%,70L - vs. Raul Martinez +R
FL-13 (R+4, R Vern Buchanan 2006, RSC) - vs. Christine Jennings ++R
FL-18 (R+4, R Ileana Ros-Lehtinen 1989), 30%,63L - vs. Annette Taddeo ++R
[FL-10 (D+1, R Bill Young 1970)]- vs. Bob Hackworth
[FL-07 (R+3, R John Mica 1992)]- vs. Faye Armitage
[FL-09 (R+4, R Gus Bilirakis 2006)] - vs. Bill Mitchell
[FL-15 (R+4, R Dave Weldon*, RSC)]- vs. Steven Blythe
[FL-05 (R+5, R Ginny Brown-Waite, MSP)]- vs. John Russell
[FL-12 (R+5, R Adam Putnam, RSC), 72%,12B,12L]- vs. Doug Tudor
[FL-06 (R+8, R Cliff Stearns 1988, RSC), 79%,12B]- vs. Tim Cunha
[FL-14 (R+10, R Connie Mack 2004, RSC)] - vs. Robert Neeld
MS- Sen R+8, R Roger Wicker, 61%,36B- vs. Ronnie Musgrove (85% R, Wicker +7.5)
[MS-04 (R+16, D Gene Taylor 1989), 73%,22B] - vs. John McCay
MS-01 (R+10, D Travis Childers 2008), 71%,26B - vs. Greg Davis +D
[MS-03 (R+13, R Pickering*), 64%,33B] - Gregg Harper (R) vs. Joel Gill (D)
LA- Prez R+5,63%,32B (10%, McCain +9.3)
LA-06 (R+7, D Don Cazayoux 2008), 63%,33B Toss
LA-04 (R+7, R Jim McCrery* 1988, MSP), 62%,33B Toss
LA-07 (R+7, R Charles Boustany 2004), 72%,25B ++R
LA-01 (R+18, R Steve Scalise 2008), 83%, 13B W
AR- Prez R+2,79%,16B (10%, McCain +8.5)
OK-
OK-01 (R+13, R John Sullivan 2002), 76%,6NA - vs. Georgianna Oliver W
[OK-02 (R+5, D Dan Boren 2004), 70%,17NA]- vs. Raymond Wickson
TX-
TX-23 (R+4, D Ciro Rodriguez 2006), 41%,55L - vs. Lyle Larson ++D
TX-22 (R+15, D Nick Lampson 2006), 61%,20L,8A - vs. Pete Olson Toss
TX-10 (R+13, R McCaul 2004, RSC), 66%,19L - vs. Larry Joe Doherty ++R
TX-07 (R+16, R John Culberson 2000, RSC), 67%,18L,7A - vs. Michael Skelly ++R
[TX-32 (R+11, R Pete Sessions 1996, RSC), 50%,36L] - vs. Eric Roberson
[TX-24 (R+15, R Kenny Marchant 2004, RSC), 64%,10B,18L,6A] - vs. Tom Love
[TX-03 (R+17, R Sam Johnson 1991, RSC), 63%,17L,8A] - vs. Tom Daley
[TX-17 (R+18, D Chet Edwards 1990), 71%,10B,15L] - vs. Rob Curnock
[TX-19 (R+25, R Neugebauer 2002, RSC), 64%,29L] - vs. Dwight Fullingim
West- 124 EV, 24 Senate, 98 House
MT- Prez R+13,89%,6NA (18%, McCain +5.6%)
ID
ID-01 (R+19, R Bill Sali, RSC) - vs. Walt Minnick +R
UT
WY
WY-AL (R+19, R Barbara Cubin*, RSC)- vs. Gary Trauner ++R
CO- Sen R+3, R Allard*, 75%,17L- Bob Schaffer (R) vs. Mark Udall (D) (81% D, Udall +5.9%)
CO- Prez (84%, Obama +5.6)
CO-04 (R+9, R Marilyn Musgrave 2002, RSC), 79%,17L - vs. Betsy Markey Toss
[CO-06 (R+10, R Tancredo*, RSC)]- vs. Hank Eng
NM- Sen Even, R Domenici*, 45%,42L,9NA- [Senate is safe Democratic]
NM- Prez (89%, Obama +8.7)
NM-01 (D+2, R Heather Wilson*, MSP), 49%,43L- Darren White (R) vs. Martin Heinrich (D) T
NM-02 (R+6, R Steve Pearce*, RSC), 44%,47L - Edward Tinsley (R) vs. Harry Teague (D) +R
AZ- Prez R+3, 64%,25L,5NA (10%, McCain +8.8%)
AZ-08 (R+1, D Gabrielle Giffords 2006), 74%,18L- vs. Tim Bee +D
AZ-01 (R+2 R Rick Renzi*, RSC), 58%,16L,23NA- Sydney Hay (R) vs. Ann Kirkpatrick (D) +D
AZ-05 (R+4, D Harry Mitchell 2006), 77%,13L- vs. Davd Schweikert +D
AZ-03 (R+6, R John Shadegg 1994, RSC), 79%, 14L- vs. Bob Lord ++R
[AZ-02 (R+9, R Trent Franks 2002, RSC), 78%,14L]- vs. John Thrasher
NV- Prez R+1, 65%,20L (67%, Obama +2.3%)
NV-03 (D+1, R Jon Porter 2002, MSP), 69%,16L,6A- vs. Dana Titus Toss
NV-02 (R+8, R Dean Heller 2006), 75%,15L- vs. Jill Derby ++R
CA-
CA-11 (R+3, D Jerry McNerney 2006), 64%,20L,9A - vs. Dean Andal +D
CA-50 (R+5, R Brian Bilbray 2006, RSC), 66%,19L,10A - vs. Nick Leibham ++R
CA-04 (R+11, R John Doolittle*) - Tom McClintock vs. Charles Brown ++R
CA-26 (R+4, R David Dreier 1980, MSP), 53%,24L,15A - vs. Russ Warner W
CA-46 (R+6, R Dana Rohrabacher 1988, RSC), 63%,17L,15A - vs. Debbie Cook W
CA-45 (R+3, R Mary Bono Mack 1998, MSP), 50%,38L - vs. Julie Bornstein W
[CA-24 (R+5, R Elton Gallegly 1986), 69%,22L] - vs. Marta Ann Jorgenson
[CA-44 (R+6, R Ken Calvert 1992, MSP), 51%,35L] - vs. Bill Hedrick
[CA-25 (R+7, R Howard McKeon 1992, RSC), 57%,27L] - vs. Jackie Conaway
[CA-40 (R+8, R Ed Royce 1992, RSC), 49%,30L,16A] - vs. Christina Avalos
[CA-48 (R+8, R John Campbell 2005, RSC), 68%,15L,13A] - vs. Steve Young
[CA-41 (R+9, R Jerry Lewis 1978, MSP), 64%,23L] - vs. Tim Prince
[CA-42 (R+10, R Gary Miller 1998, RSC), 54%,24L,16A] - vs. Ed Chau
[CA-49 (R+10, R Darrell Issa 2000, RSC), 58%, 30L] - vs. Robert Hamilton
[CA-21 (R+13, R Devin Nunes 2000), 46%,43L] - vs. Larry Johnson
OR- Sen D+1, R Gordon Smith- vs. Jeff Merkley (53% D, Merkley +0.4)
OR-05 (D+1, D Darlene Hooley*), 84%,10L - Kurt Schrader (D) vs. Mike Erickson (R) +D
WA-
WA-08 (D+2, R Dave Reichert 2004), 82%,8A- vs. Darcy Burner Toss
[WA-05 (R+7, R Cathy McMorris 2004, RSC)]- vs. Mark Mays
AK- Sen R+14, R Ted Stevens vs. Mark Begich, 68%,15NA (67% R, Begich +3.1)
AK-AL (R+14, R Don Young), 68%,15NA- ? (R) vs. Ethan Berkowitz (D) Toss
HI-
For House races, the rating from Swing State Project (July 21, 2008) is given as ++D, +D, Toss, +R, ++R, or W for watch. [] Indicates the race is not considered competitive at all by SSP, but is a Republican seat with a PVI which makes it a potential risk or has a high minority percentage (more than 35%). House seats under each state are listed in order of SSP rating and PVI, with most Democratic first. * means the seat is open. A percentage is the percentage of whites in the district with comments afterward on blacks (B), Latinos (L), Asians (A), or Native Americans/Hawaiians (NA/NH).
For Senate and President, victory likelihoods from FiveThirtyEight.com are given for September 30, 2008 if the percentage is between 10% and 90%.
After each race, major party candidates are listed if available and the nominations are already fixed. Races without a major party opponent are dropped from the list. For incumbents running for re-election a date of first election to Congress is given. RSC means a member of the rightist Republican Study Committee and MSP is the Republican moderate Main Street Partnership.
Northeast- 117 EV (22 Sen, 92 House, 3 DC)
ME
NH- Sen D+1, R Sununu- vs. Jeanne Shaheen (32% R, Shaheen +3.4%)
NH- Prez (71%--Obama +2.8%)
NH-01 (Even, D Carol Shea-Porter 2006) vs. Jeb Bradley +D
VT
MA
RI
CT
CT-05 (D+4, D Christopher Murphy 2006), 80%,11L - vs. David Cappiello ++D
CT-04 (D+5, R Christopher Shays 1987, MSP), 71%,11B,13L - vs. Jim Himes Toss
NY
NY-25 (D+3, R Jim Walsh*, MSP) vs. Dale Sweetland ++D
NY-13 (D+1, R Vito Fossella*), 71%,11B,9A vs. Robert Straniere ++D
NY-24 (R+1, D Michael Arcuri 2006) vs. Richard Hanna ++D
NY-20 (R+3, D Kirsten Gillibrand 2006) vs. Sandy Treadwell +D
NY-26 (R+3, R Tom Reynolds*, RSC) Christopher Lee (R) vs. Alice Kryzan (D) +R
NY-29 (R+5, R Randy Kuhl 2004, MSP) vs. Eric Massa +R
[NY-03 (D+2, R Peter King 1992)] vs. Graham Long
[NY-23 (Even, R John McHugh 1992)] vs. Michael Oot
NJ
NJ-03 (D+3, R Jim Saxton*) - Christopher Myers (R) vs. John Adler (D) +D
NJ-07 (R+1, R Mike Ferguson*), 79%,8A - Leonard Lance (R) vs. Linda Stender (D) Toss
NJ-05 (R+4, R Scott Garrett 2000, RSC), 86%,7A - vs. Dennis Shulman ++R
NJ-04 (R+1, R Chris Smith 1980)]- vs. Joshua Zeitz W
[NJ-11 (R+6, R Rodney Frelinghuysen 1994), 83%,6A] - vs. Tom Wyka
PA- Prez D+2, 84%, 10%B (84%--Obama +6.0%)
PA-08 (D+3, D Patrick Murphy 2006) - vs. Tom Manion ++D
PA-04 (R+3, D Jason Altmire 2006) - vs. Melissa Hart +D
PA-10 (R+8, D Chris Carney) - vs. Chris Hackett +D
PA-11 (D+5, D Paul Kanjorski 1985)- vs. Lou Barletta Toss
PA-03 (R+2, R Phil English 1994) - vs. Kathy Dahlkemper +R
PA-15 (D+2, R Charlie Dent 2004, MSP) - vs. Sam Bennett ++R
PA-06 (D+2, R Jim Gerlach 2002, MSP) - vs. Bob Roggio W
PA-05 (R+10, R Peterson*) - Glenn Thompson (R) vs. Mark McCracken (D) W
[PA-18 (D+2, R Tim Murphy 2002, RSC) - vs. Steve O'Donnell]
MD
MD-01 (R+10, R Wayne Gilchrist*, MSP) - Andy Harris (R) vs. Frank Kratovil (D) +R
DE
[DE-AL (D+7, R Michael Castle 1992, MSP)]- vs. Karen Hartley-Nagle
DC
Midwest- 124 EV, 24 Sen, 100 House
OH- Prez D+1, 84%,11B (67%, Obama +2.0)
OH-18 (R+6, D Zack Space) - vs. Fred Dailey ++D
OH-15 (R+1, R Pryce*, MSP) - Steve Stivers (R) vs. Mary Jo Kilroy (D) Toss
OH-16 (R+4, R Ralph Regula*, MSP) - Kirk Schuring (R) vs. John Boccieri (D) Toss
OH-01 (R+1, R Steve Chabot 1994, RSC), 69%,27B - vs. Steven Driehaus +R
OH-02 (R+13, R Jean Schmidt 2005) - vs. Vicotria Wulsin +R
OH-07 (R+6, R Dave Hobson*, MSP) - Steve Austria (R) vs. Sharen Neuhardt (D) ++R
OH-03 (R+3, R Mike Turner 2002, RSC, MSP), 79%,17B - vs. Jane Mitakides W
[OH-12 (R+1, R Pat Tiberi 2000), 72%,22B] - vs. David Robinson
[OH-14 (R+2, R Steve LaTourette 1994, MSP)] - vs. William O'Neill
[OH-05 (R+10, R Bob Latta 2007, RSC)] - vs. George Mays
MI- Prez D+3, 79%,14%B, (88%, Obama +7.0)
MI-07 (R+2, R Tim Walberg 2006, RSC)- vs. Mark Schauer Toss
MI-09 (Even, R Joe Knollenberg 1992), 81%,6A - vs. Gary Peters +R
[MI-11 (R+1, R Thad McCotter 2002)]- vs. Joseph Larkin
[MI-06 (R+2, R Fred Upton 1986, MSP)]- vs. Don Cooney
[MI-08 (R+2, R Mike Rogers 2000)] - vs. Robert Alexander
[MI-04 (R+3, R Dave Camp, RSC, MSP)] - vs. Andrew Concannon
[MI-10 (R+4, R Candace Miller 2002)] - vs. Robert Denison
[MI-02 (R+9, R Pete Hoekstra 1992, RSC)] - vs. Fred Johnson
[MI-03 (R+9, R Vern Ehlers 1993, MSP)] - vs. Henry Sanchez
IN- Prez R+8 (50%, McCain +0.1%)
IN-09 (R+7, D Baron Hill 2006) - vs. Mike Sodrel +D
IN-03 (R+16, R Mark Souder 1994, RSC) - vs. Mike Montagano ++R
IN-04 (R+17, R Steve Buyer 1992) vs. Nels Ackerson W
IL-
IL-14 (R+5, D Bill Foster 2008), 74%,18L - vs. Jim Oberweis +D
IL-11 (R+1, R Jerry Weller*, MSP) - Debbie Halvorson (D) vs. Marty Ozinga (R) Toss
IL-10 (D+4, R Mark Kirk 2000, MSP), 75%,12L,6A - vs. Daniel Seals +R
IL-06 (R+3, R Peter Roskam 2006, RSC), 75%,12L,8A - vs. Jill Morgenthaler W
IL-18 (R+5, R Ray LaHood*, MSP) - Aaron Schock (R) vs. Colleen Callahan (D) W
IL-13 (R+5, R Judy Biggert 1998, MSP), 82%,7A - vs. Scott Harper W
[IL-16 (R+4, R Donald Manzullo 1992, RSC)] - vs. Bob Abboud
[IL-15 (R+6, R Tim Johnson 2000, MSP)] - vs. Steve Cox
[IL-19 (R+8, R John Shimkus 1996)] - vs. Daniel Davis
WI-
WI-08 (Even, D Steve Kagen 2006)- vs. John Gard +D
[WI-01 (R+2, R Paul Ryan 1998, RSC)]- vs. Marge Krupp
[WI-06 (R+5, R Tom Petri 1979, MSP)]- vs. Roger Kittelson
MN- Sen D+1, R Coleman- vs. Al Franken (61% R, Coleman +1.8)
MN-01 (R+1, D Tim Walz 2006) ++D
MN-03 (R+1, R Jim Ramstad*, MSP) - Erik Paulsen (R) vs. Ashwin Madia (D) Toss
MN-06 (R+5, R Michele Bachmann 2006, RSC) - vs. Elwyn Tinklenberg ++R
MN-02 (R+3, R John Kline 2002, RSC) - vs. Steve Sarvi W
[MN-07 (R+6, D Collin Peterson 1990)] - vs. Glenn Menze
IA-
IA-04 (Even, R Tom Latham 1994)- vs. Becky Greenwald ++R
[IA-05 (R+8, R Steve King 2002, RSC)] - vs. Rob Hubler
MO- Prez R+1, 84%,11B (43%, McCain +0.9)
MO-06 (R+5, R Sam Graves 2000)- vs. Kay Barnes +R
MO-09 (R+7, R Kenny Hulshof*)- Blaine Luetkemayer (R) vs. Judy Baker (D) +R
[MO-02 (R+9, R Todd Akin 2000, RSC)]- vs. Bill Haas
ND- Prez R+13, 92%, 5%NA (14%, McCain +7.2)
SD
NE
NE-02 (R+9, R Lee Terry 1998, RSC) - vs. Jim Esch ++R
KS
KS-02 (R+7, D Nancy Boyda 2006)- vs. Lynn Jenkins +D
KS-04 (R+12, R Todd Tiahrt 1994, RSC) - vs. Donald Betts W
South- 173 EV, 28 Senate, 145 House
WV- Prez R+4 (Obama 22%, McCain +4.8%)
WV-02 (R+5, R Shelley Capito 2000, MSP) - vs. Anne Barth ++R
VA- Sen R+3, R Warner*, 70%,19B- [Senate is Safe Democratic]
VA- Prez (78%, Obama +4.1)
VA-11 (R+1, R Tom Davis*, MSP), 67%,10B,11A - Keith Fimian (R) vs. Gerry Connolly (D) +D
VA-02 (R+6, R Thelma Drake 2004, RSC), 67%, 21B - vs. Glenn Nye +R
VA-10 (R+5, R Frank Wolf 1980), 77%,7A - vs. Judy Feder ++R
VA-05 (R+6, R Virgil Goode 1996, RSC), 72%, 24B - vs. Tom Perriello ++R
[VA-04 (R+5, R Randy Forbes 2001, RSC), 62%,33B] - vs Andrea Miller
NC- Sen R+5, R Dole, 70%,21B- vs. Kay Hagan (51% R, Dole +0.1)
NC- Prez (44%, McCain +0.7)
NC-08 (R+3, R Robin Hayes 1998, RSC), 62%,27B - vs. Larry Kissell +R
NC-10 (R+15, R Patrick McHenry 2004, RSC) - vs. Daniel Johnson W
SC-
SC-02 (R+9, R Joe Wilson 2001, RSC), 68%,23B - vs. Robert Miller W
SC-01 (R+10, R Henry Brown 2000, RSC), 74%, 21B- vs. Linda Ketner W
GA- Prez R+6, 63%,29B (11%, McCain +7.5)
GA-08 (R+8, D Jim Marshall 2002), 83%,13B - vs. Robert Nowak +D
[GA-11 (R+18, R Phil Gingrey 2002, RSC), 62%,28B]- vs. Hugh Gammon
[GA-03 (R+19, R Lynn Westmoreland 2004, RSC), 56%,40B] - vs. Stephen Camp
KY- Sen R+7, R McConnell- vs. Bruce Lunsford (79% R, McConnell +5.5)
KY-03 (D+2, D John Yarmuth 2006), 76%,19B - vs. Anne Northrup +D
KY-02 (R+13, R Ron Lewis*, RSC)- Brett Guthrie (R) vs. David Boswell (D) +R
[KY-01 (R+10, R Ed Whitfield 1994)] - vs. Heather Ryan
TN-
[TN-03 (R+8, R Zach Wamp 1994, RSC)]- vs. Doug Vandagriff
AL-
AL-05 (R+6, D Robert Cramer*), 78%,17B - vs. Wayne Parker +D
AL-02 (R+13, R Terry Everett*), 67%,29B - Jay Love (R) vs. Bobby Bright (D) Toss
AL-03 (R+4, R Mike Rogers 2002), 65%,32B - vs. Joshua Segall ++R
FL-Prez 65%,14B,17L (58%, Obama +1.0%)
FL-16 (R+2, D Tim Mahoney 2006), 82%,10L - vs. Tom Rooney +D
FL-24 (R+3, R Tom Feeney 2002, RSC), 80%,10L - vs. Suzanne Kosmas +R
FL-08 (R+3, R Ric Keller 2000), 70%,18L - vs. Alan Grayson +R
FL-25 (R+4, R Mario Diaz-Balart 2002, RSC), 24%,10B,62L - vs. Joe Garcia +R
FL-21 (R+6, R Lincoln Diaz-Balart 1992), 21%,70L - vs. Raul Martinez +R
FL-13 (R+4, R Vern Buchanan 2006, RSC) - vs. Christine Jennings ++R
FL-18 (R+4, R Ileana Ros-Lehtinen 1989), 30%,63L - vs. Annette Taddeo ++R
[FL-10 (D+1, R Bill Young 1970)]- vs. Bob Hackworth
[FL-07 (R+3, R John Mica 1992)]- vs. Faye Armitage
[FL-09 (R+4, R Gus Bilirakis 2006)] - vs. Bill Mitchell
[FL-15 (R+4, R Dave Weldon*, RSC)]- vs. Steven Blythe
[FL-05 (R+5, R Ginny Brown-Waite, MSP)]- vs. John Russell
[FL-12 (R+5, R Adam Putnam, RSC), 72%,12B,12L]- vs. Doug Tudor
[FL-06 (R+8, R Cliff Stearns 1988, RSC), 79%,12B]- vs. Tim Cunha
[FL-14 (R+10, R Connie Mack 2004, RSC)] - vs. Robert Neeld
MS- Sen R+8, R Roger Wicker, 61%,36B- vs. Ronnie Musgrove (85% R, Wicker +7.5)
[MS-04 (R+16, D Gene Taylor 1989), 73%,22B] - vs. John McCay
MS-01 (R+10, D Travis Childers 2008), 71%,26B - vs. Greg Davis +D
[MS-03 (R+13, R Pickering*), 64%,33B] - Gregg Harper (R) vs. Joel Gill (D)
LA- Prez R+5,63%,32B (10%, McCain +9.3)
LA-06 (R+7, D Don Cazayoux 2008), 63%,33B Toss
LA-04 (R+7, R Jim McCrery* 1988, MSP), 62%,33B Toss
LA-07 (R+7, R Charles Boustany 2004), 72%,25B ++R
LA-01 (R+18, R Steve Scalise 2008), 83%, 13B W
AR- Prez R+2,79%,16B (10%, McCain +8.5)
OK-
OK-01 (R+13, R John Sullivan 2002), 76%,6NA - vs. Georgianna Oliver W
[OK-02 (R+5, D Dan Boren 2004), 70%,17NA]- vs. Raymond Wickson
TX-
TX-23 (R+4, D Ciro Rodriguez 2006), 41%,55L - vs. Lyle Larson ++D
TX-22 (R+15, D Nick Lampson 2006), 61%,20L,8A - vs. Pete Olson Toss
TX-10 (R+13, R McCaul 2004, RSC), 66%,19L - vs. Larry Joe Doherty ++R
TX-07 (R+16, R John Culberson 2000, RSC), 67%,18L,7A - vs. Michael Skelly ++R
[TX-32 (R+11, R Pete Sessions 1996, RSC), 50%,36L] - vs. Eric Roberson
[TX-24 (R+15, R Kenny Marchant 2004, RSC), 64%,10B,18L,6A] - vs. Tom Love
[TX-03 (R+17, R Sam Johnson 1991, RSC), 63%,17L,8A] - vs. Tom Daley
[TX-17 (R+18, D Chet Edwards 1990), 71%,10B,15L] - vs. Rob Curnock
[TX-19 (R+25, R Neugebauer 2002, RSC), 64%,29L] - vs. Dwight Fullingim
West- 124 EV, 24 Senate, 98 House
MT- Prez R+13,89%,6NA (18%, McCain +5.6%)
ID
ID-01 (R+19, R Bill Sali, RSC) - vs. Walt Minnick +R
UT
WY
WY-AL (R+19, R Barbara Cubin*, RSC)- vs. Gary Trauner ++R
CO- Sen R+3, R Allard*, 75%,17L- Bob Schaffer (R) vs. Mark Udall (D) (81% D, Udall +5.9%)
CO- Prez (84%, Obama +5.6)
CO-04 (R+9, R Marilyn Musgrave 2002, RSC), 79%,17L - vs. Betsy Markey Toss
[CO-06 (R+10, R Tancredo*, RSC)]- vs. Hank Eng
NM- Sen Even, R Domenici*, 45%,42L,9NA- [Senate is safe Democratic]
NM- Prez (89%, Obama +8.7)
NM-01 (D+2, R Heather Wilson*, MSP), 49%,43L- Darren White (R) vs. Martin Heinrich (D) T
NM-02 (R+6, R Steve Pearce*, RSC), 44%,47L - Edward Tinsley (R) vs. Harry Teague (D) +R
AZ- Prez R+3, 64%,25L,5NA (10%, McCain +8.8%)
AZ-08 (R+1, D Gabrielle Giffords 2006), 74%,18L- vs. Tim Bee +D
AZ-01 (R+2 R Rick Renzi*, RSC), 58%,16L,23NA- Sydney Hay (R) vs. Ann Kirkpatrick (D) +D
AZ-05 (R+4, D Harry Mitchell 2006), 77%,13L- vs. Davd Schweikert +D
AZ-03 (R+6, R John Shadegg 1994, RSC), 79%, 14L- vs. Bob Lord ++R
[AZ-02 (R+9, R Trent Franks 2002, RSC), 78%,14L]- vs. John Thrasher
NV- Prez R+1, 65%,20L (67%, Obama +2.3%)
NV-03 (D+1, R Jon Porter 2002, MSP), 69%,16L,6A- vs. Dana Titus Toss
NV-02 (R+8, R Dean Heller 2006), 75%,15L- vs. Jill Derby ++R
CA-
CA-11 (R+3, D Jerry McNerney 2006), 64%,20L,9A - vs. Dean Andal +D
CA-50 (R+5, R Brian Bilbray 2006, RSC), 66%,19L,10A - vs. Nick Leibham ++R
CA-04 (R+11, R John Doolittle*) - Tom McClintock vs. Charles Brown ++R
CA-26 (R+4, R David Dreier 1980, MSP), 53%,24L,15A - vs. Russ Warner W
CA-46 (R+6, R Dana Rohrabacher 1988, RSC), 63%,17L,15A - vs. Debbie Cook W
CA-45 (R+3, R Mary Bono Mack 1998, MSP), 50%,38L - vs. Julie Bornstein W
[CA-24 (R+5, R Elton Gallegly 1986), 69%,22L] - vs. Marta Ann Jorgenson
[CA-44 (R+6, R Ken Calvert 1992, MSP), 51%,35L] - vs. Bill Hedrick
[CA-25 (R+7, R Howard McKeon 1992, RSC), 57%,27L] - vs. Jackie Conaway
[CA-40 (R+8, R Ed Royce 1992, RSC), 49%,30L,16A] - vs. Christina Avalos
[CA-48 (R+8, R John Campbell 2005, RSC), 68%,15L,13A] - vs. Steve Young
[CA-41 (R+9, R Jerry Lewis 1978, MSP), 64%,23L] - vs. Tim Prince
[CA-42 (R+10, R Gary Miller 1998, RSC), 54%,24L,16A] - vs. Ed Chau
[CA-49 (R+10, R Darrell Issa 2000, RSC), 58%, 30L] - vs. Robert Hamilton
[CA-21 (R+13, R Devin Nunes 2000), 46%,43L] - vs. Larry Johnson
OR- Sen D+1, R Gordon Smith- vs. Jeff Merkley (53% D, Merkley +0.4)
OR-05 (D+1, D Darlene Hooley*), 84%,10L - Kurt Schrader (D) vs. Mike Erickson (R) +D
WA-
WA-08 (D+2, R Dave Reichert 2004), 82%,8A- vs. Darcy Burner Toss
[WA-05 (R+7, R Cathy McMorris 2004, RSC)]- vs. Mark Mays
AK- Sen R+14, R Ted Stevens vs. Mark Begich, 68%,15NA (67% R, Begich +3.1)
AK-AL (R+14, R Don Young), 68%,15NA- ? (R) vs. Ethan Berkowitz (D) Toss
HI-
Sunday, June 15, 2008
Jerrold Nadler, His Subcommittee, and Impeachment
This caught my eye. Speaking about the rendition of innocent Canadian citizen Maher Arar to Syria in 2002:
Speakin of "senior government officials", Congressman Nadler, perhaps you should consider hearings into Article XIX of the impeachment charges against George W. Bush. After all, you are the chairman of the subcommittee of the Judiciary Committee which is most relevant to impeachments. The text of Article XIX (and video of Kucinich reading part of it):Congressional members called Thursday for a special prosecutor to lead the investigation so criminal charges could be filed.
"Senior American officials ought to go to jail for this," said Rep. Jerrold Nadler (D-N.Y.), chairman of the House Judiciary subcommittee on constitution, civil rights and civil liberties, who has access to the classified version of a redacted inspector's general report on the government's actions. "There was a deliberate plot to abuse the procedures so they could railroad Arar to Syria, where they knew he would be tortured."
ARTICLE XIX
RENDITION: KIDNAPPING PEOPLE AND TAKING THEM AGAINST THEIR WILL TO "BLACK SITES" LOCATED IN OTHER NATIONS, INCLUDING NATIONS KNOWN TO PRACTICE TORTURE
In his conduct while President of the United States, George W. Bush, in violation of his constitutional oath to faithfully execute the office of President of the United States and, to the best of his ability, preserve, protect, and defend the Constitution of the United States, and in violation of his constitutional duty under Article II, Section 3 of the Constitution "to take care that the laws be faithfully executed", has both personally and acting through his agents and subordinates, together with the Vice President, violated United States and International Law and the US Constitution by kidnapping people and renditioning them to "black sites" located in other nations, including nations known to practice torture.
The president has publicly admitted that since the 9-11 attacks in 2001, the US has been kidnapping and transporting against the will of the subject (renditioning) in its so-called "war" on terror—even people captured by US personnel in friendly nations like Sweden, Germany, Macedonia and Italy—and ferrying them to places like Bagram Airbase in Afghanistan, and to prisons operated in Eastern European countries, African Countries and Middle Eastern countries where security forces are known to practice torture.
These people are captured and held indefinitely, without any charges being filed, and are held without being identified to the Red Cross, or to their families. Many are clearly innocent, and several cases, including one in Canada and one in Germany, have demonstrably been shown subsequently to have been in error, because of a similarity of names or because of misinformation provided to US authorities.
Such a policy is in clear violation of US and International Law, and has placed the United States in the position of a pariah state. The CIA has no law enforcement authority, and cannot legally arrest or detain anyone. The program of "extraordinary rendition" authorized by the president is the substantial equivalent of the policies of "disappearing" people, practices widely practiced and universally condemned in the military dictatorships of Latin America during the late 20th Century.
The administration has claimed that prior administrations have practiced extraordinary rendition, but, while this is technically true, earlier renditions were used only to capture people with outstanding arrest warrants or convictions who were outside in order to deliver them to stand trial or serve their sentences in the US. The president has refused to divulge how many people have been subject to extraordinary rendition since September, 2001. It is possible that some have died in captivity. As one US official has stated off the record, regarding the program, Some of those who were renditioned were later delivered to Guantanamo, while others were sent there directly. An example of this is the case of six Algerian Bosnians who, immediately after being cleared by the Supreme Court of Bosnia Herzegovina in January 2002 of allegedly plotting to attack the US and UK embassies, were captured, bound and gagged by US special forces and renditioned to Guantanamo.
In perhaps the most egregious proven case of rendition, Maher Arar, a Canadian citizen born in Syria, was picked up in September 2002 while transiting through New York's JFK airport on his way home to Canada. Immigration and FBI officials detained and interrogated him for nearly two weeks, illegally denying him his rights to access counsel, the Canadian consulate, and the courts. Executive branch officials asked him if he would volunteer to go to Syria, where he hadn't been in 15 years, and Maher refused
Maher was put on a private jet plane operated by the CIA and sent to Jordan, where he was beaten for 8 hours, and then delivered to Syria, where he was beaten and interrogated for 18 hours a day for a couple of weeks. He was whipped on his back and hands with a 2 inch thick electric cable and asked questions similar to those he had been asked in the United States. For over ten months Maher was held in an underground grave-like cell – 3 x 6 x 7 feet – which was damp and cold, and in which the only light came in through a hole in the ceiling. After a year of this, Maher was released without any charges. He is now back home in Canada with his family. Upon his release, the Syrian Government announced he had no links to Al Qaeda, and the Canadian Government has also said they've found no links to Al Qaeda. The Canadian Government launched a Commission of Inquiry into the Actions of Canadian Officials in Relation to Maher Arar, to investigate the role of Canadian officials, but the Bush Administration has refused to cooperate with the Inquiry.
Hundreds of flights of CIA-chartered planes have been documented as having passed through European countries on extraordinary rendition missions like that involving Maher Arar, but the administration refuses to state how many people have been subjects of this illegal program.
The same U.S. laws prohibiting aiding and abetting torture also prohibit sending someone to a country where there is a substantial likelihood they may be tortured. Article 3 of CAT prohibits forced return where there is a "substantial likelihood" that an individual "may be in danger of" torture, and has been implemented by federal statute. Article 7 of the ICCPR prohibits return to country of origin where individuals may be "at risk" of either torture or cruel, inhuman or degrading treatment.
Under international Human Rights law, transferring a POW to any nation where he or she is likely to be tortured or inhumanely treated violates Article 12 of the Third Geneva Convention, and transferring any civilian who is a protected person under the Fourth Geneva Convention is a grave breach and a criminal act.
In situations of armed conflict, both international human rights law and humanitarian law apply. A person captured in the zone of military hostilities "must have some status under international law; he is either a prisoner of war and, as such, covered by the Third Convention, [or] a civilian covered by the Fourth Convention….There is no intermediate status; nobody in enemy hands can be outside the law." Although the state is obligated to repatriate Prisoners of War as soon as hostilities cease, the ICRC's commentary on the 1949 Conventions states that prisoners should not be repatriated where there are serious reasons for fearing that repatriating the individual would be contrary to general principles of established international law for the protection of human beings Thus, all of the Guantánamo detainees as well as renditioned captives are protected by international human rights protections and humanitarian law.
By his actions as outlined above, the President has abused his power, broken the law, deceived the American people, and placed American military personnel, and indeed all Americans—especially those who may travel or live abroad--at risk of similar treatment. Furthermore, in the eyes of the rest of the world, the President has made the US, once a model of respect for Human Rights and respect for the rule of law, into a state where international law is neither respected nor upheld.
In all of these actions and decisions in violation of United States and International law, President George W. Bush has acted in a manner contrary to his trust as President and Commander in Chief, and subversive of constitutional government, to the prejudice of the cause of law and justice and to the manifest injury of the people of the United States. Wherefore, President George W. Bush, by such conduct, is guilty of an impeachable offense warranting removal from office.
Monday, May 5, 2008
The Geography of Non-Whiteness in the US Congress
Of 435 Congressional districts, 142 (33%) are less than 65% non-Latino white. In these districts, Democrats hold a 110-32 advantage, with all of the Republican seats being in the South and West. In the following, B is black, L is Latino, and A is Asian. No statistics were available at cqpolitics.com on Native Americans, but some concentrations are noted below. All seats are Democratic-held unless otherwise noted.
The most nonwhite districts, ranked by percentage of non-Latino whites, are:
NY-16 3%- Serrano- south Bronx. 30% B, 63% L.
CA-31 10%- Becerra- central LA. 70% L, 14% A.
CA-35 10%- Waters- south central LA. 34% B, 47% L.
CA-34 11%- Roybal-Allard- LA downtown. 77% L.
NY-06 13%- Meeks- around JFK airport in Queens. 52% B, 17% L.
CA-38 14%- Napolitano- east LA. 71% L, 10% A.
CA-32 15%- Solis- east LA county. 62% L, 18% A.
NY-10 16%- Towns- Brooklyn. 60% B, 17% L.
NY-15 16%- Rangel- Harlem (Manhattan). 31% B, 48% L.
TX-09 17%- Green- Houston. 37% B, 33% L.
TX-16 17%- Reyes- El Paso. 78% L.
CA-37 17%- Richardson- Long Beach, south central LA. 25% B, 43% L, 11% A.
CA-47 17%- Loretta Sanchez- Anaheim (Orange County). 65% L, 14% A.
IL-04 18%- Gutierrez- mostly in Chicago. 74% L.
FL-17 18%- Meek- Miami area. 55% B, 21% L.
TX-18 20%- Jackson Lee- Houston. 40% B, 36% L.
CA-33 20%- Watson- western LA. 30% B, 35% L, 12% A.
Of these 17, four are in New York City, one is in Chicago, one is in the Miami area, two are in Houston, one is in El Paso, and 8 are in the Los Angeles area. These are all Democratic. The three least white Republican-controlled districts (less than 30% non-Latino white) are the exceptional Miami-area Latino-majority districts of the Diaz-Balart brothers and Ileana Ros-Lehtinen. There are four other Republican-controlled districts which are under 50% non-Latino white in New Mexico and California, with the least white, 44%, in the southern New Mexico district of Steve Pearce.
In the Northeast, 24 of 92 seats are less than 65% non-Latino white, of which 1 is in Massachusetts, 12 are in New York, 5 are in New Jersey, 2 are in Pennsylvania, and 4 are in Maryland. All 24 seats are currently Democratic, and are rated as safe Democratic.
The Massachusetts seat (MA-08) is in the central part of the Boston area. The New York seats are NY-04, NY-05, NY-06 (majority B), NY-07, NY-09, NY-10 (majority B), NY-11 (majority B), NY-12, NY-15, NY-16 (majority L), NY-17, and NY-28. These are all entirely in New York City except NY-17, which is partially in the northern suburbs, and NY-28, which is a narrow strip connecting parts of the Buffalo and Rochester areas. The New Jersey seats are NJ-06, NJ-08, NJ-09, NJ-10 (majority B), and NJ-13, which are all in the inner suburbs of New York City. The Pennsylvania seats are PA-01 and PA-02 (majority B) in Philadelphia. The Maryland seats are MD-04 (majority B), MD-05, MD-07 (majority B), and MD-08. MD-07 is largely in Baltimore and the other three are mostly in the Washington suburbs with MD-05 containing substantial rural area east of Washington DC.
In the Midwest, 12 of 100 seats are less than 65% white, of which 1 is in Ohio, 2 are in Michigan, 1 is in Indiana, 5 are in Illinois, 1 is in Wisconsin, and 2 are in Missouri. IN-07 (63% white) is rated as competitive.
The Ohio seat, OH-11 (majority B), is mostly in Cleveland. The Michigan seats, MI-13 (majority B) and MI-14 (majority B), are mostly in Detroit. The Indiana seat, IN-07, is entirely in Indianapolis. The Illinois seats, IL-01 (majority B), IL-02 (majority B), IL-04 (majority L), IL-07 (majority B), and IL-09, are all in Chicago. The Wisconsin seat, WI-04, is mostly in Milwaukee. The Missouri seats, MO-01 (majority B) and MO-05, are mostly in St. Louis and Kansas City respectively.
In the South, 54 of 145 seats are less than 65% white, of which 4 are in Virginia, 6 are in North Carolina, 2 are in South Carolina, 7 are in Georgia, 2 are in Alabama, 1 is in Tennessee, 7 are in Florida, 2 are in Mississippi, 4 are in Louisiana, and 19 are in Texas. VA-02 (67%), VA-04 (62%), NC-08 (62%), GA-03 (56%), GA-11 (62%), AL-03 (65%), FL-18 (30%, majority L), FL-21 (21%, majority L), and FL-25 (24%, majority L), MS-03 (64%), LA-04 (62%), LA-05 (63%), TX-02 (64%), TX-03 (63%), TX-11 (65%), TX-19 (64%), TX-24 (64%), and TX-32 (50%) are held by Republicans with VA-02, NC-08, FL-21, FL-25, LA-04 rated as competitive. The Democratic-held seats GA-12 (52%), LA-06 (63%), and TX-23 (41%, majority L) are rated as competitive.
The Virginia seats are VA-02, VA-03 (majority B), VA-04, and VA-08. The first three are in the area around Norfolk and Richmond including major rural areas and VA-08 is in the Washington DC area. The North Carolina seats are NC-01 (majority B), NC-02, NC-07, NC-08, NC-12, and NC-13. These are in the east and central parts of the state with all except NC-13 (a narrow strip connecting Charlotte to Winston-Salem and Greensboro) having major rural areas. NC-02 has a large part of the Raleigh area. SC-05 and SC-06 (majority B) are mostly rural areas in the eastern part of the state. The Georgia seats are GA-02, GA-03, GA-04 (majority B), GA-05 (majority B), GA-11, GA-12, and GA-13. Of these, GA-02 and GA-12 are mostly rural areas in southern Georgia and the rest are primarily in the Atlanta area with GA-03 and GA-11, which are both Republican-held, containing significant rural areas. The Alabama seats are AL-03 and AL-07, of which AL-07 (majority B) contains much of the Birmingham area and AL-03 is a more rural area in the southern part of the state. The Tennessee seat TN-09 (majority B) is mostly in Memphis.
The Florida seats are FL-03, FL-11, FL-17 (majority B), FL-18 (majority L), FL-21 (majority L), FL-23 (majority B), and FL-25 (majority L). FL-03 is in central Florida near Orlando with a large rural area, FL-11 is in Tampa, and the other five are in the Miami metropolitan area.
The Mississippi seats MS-02 (majority B) and MS-03 are mostly rural areas, splitting Jackson between them. The Louisiana seats are LA-02 (majority B), LA-04, LA-05, and LA-06. LA-02 is in New Orleans, LA-06 is mostly in the Baton Rouge area, and LA-04 and LA-05 are the mostly rural northern part of the state. The Texas seats are TX-02, TX-03, TX-09, TX-11, TX-14, TX-15 (majority L), TX-16 (majority L), TX-18, TX-19, TX-20 (majority L), TX-22, TX-23 (majority L), TX-24, TX-25 (majority L), TX-27 (majority L), TX-28 (majority L), TX-29 (majority L), TX-30, and TX-32. TX-02 and TX-14 are rural East Texas areas with some of the Houston area, TX-22 is in suburban Houston, and TX-09, TX-18, and TX-29 are in central Houston. TX-03, TX-24 is in the Dallas suburbs while TX-30 and TX-32 are in central Dallas. TX-11 and TX-19 (Lubbock) are in rural west Texas. TX-15, TX-16, TX-20, TX-23, TX-25, TX-27, TX-28 are "Latin Texas", the southern half of the state, with TX-16 in El Paso, TX-20 in San Antonio, and TX-25 in Austin.
In the West, 52 of 98 seats are less than 65% white, of which 1 is in Colorado, 3 are in New Mexico, 3 are in Arizona, 1 is in Nevada, 42 are in California, and 2 are in Hawaii. NM-01 (49%), NM-02 (44%), AZ-01 (58%), CA-19 (60%), CA-21 (46%), CA-25 (57%), CA-26 (53%), CA-40 (49%), CA-41 (64%), CA-42 (54%), CA-44 (51%), CA-45 (50%), CA-46 (63%), CA-49 (58%) are Republican-held, with NM-01, NM-02 rated as competitive. The Democratic-held seat CA-11 (64%) is rated as competitive.
The Colorado seat CO-01 is in Denver. The New Mexico seats are the entire state, with NM-03 north of Albuquerque having a high Native American population. AZ-01 is the less populated northern part of the state with a large Native American population. AZ-04 (majority L) is central Phoenix and AZ-07 (majority L) extends from the Phoenix area to Tucson and the Mexican border. NV-01 is in central Las Vegas. The Hawaii seats are the entire state. HI-01 in Honolulu is the only majority-Asian district, and HI-02 would have a large Native American population in the Census if the US hadn't declared native Hawaiians not to be "Indians" in order to prevent established law on native land claims from being applied to the conquest of Hawaii.
The California seats are CA-05, 07, 08, 09, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20 (majority L), 21, 23, 25, 26, 27, 28 (majority L), 29, 31 (majority L), 32 (majority L), 33, 34 (majority L), 35, 36, 37, 38 (majority L), 39 (majority L), 40, 41, 42, 43, 44, 45, 46, 47 (majority L), 49, 51 (majority L), and 53. The metropolitan districts are CA-06 through CA-16 in the Bay Area, CA-25 through CA-49 in the Los Angeles area, and CA-50 through CA-53 in the San Diego area. Since 42 of the 53 districts are less than 65% white, it is more illuminating to describe the districts which are more than 65% white. CA-01, CA-02, CA-03, and CA-04 are the part of California north of Sacramento and the Bay Area, with CA-06 being in the Bay Area north of the Golden Gate Bridge. CA-22 is the south end of the Central Valley around Bakersfield and the coast to the west and CA-24 is the area to the northwest of the Los Angeles area around the "ranches" of Ronald Reagan and Michael Jackson. In the Los Angeles area, CA-30 is around Beverly Hills and Santa Monica and CA-48 is in southern Orange County around Irvine. CA-50 and CA-52 are suburban areas north of San Diego.
The most nonwhite districts, ranked by percentage of non-Latino whites, are:
NY-16 3%- Serrano- south Bronx. 30% B, 63% L.
CA-31 10%- Becerra- central LA. 70% L, 14% A.
CA-35 10%- Waters- south central LA. 34% B, 47% L.
CA-34 11%- Roybal-Allard- LA downtown. 77% L.
NY-06 13%- Meeks- around JFK airport in Queens. 52% B, 17% L.
CA-38 14%- Napolitano- east LA. 71% L, 10% A.
CA-32 15%- Solis- east LA county. 62% L, 18% A.
NY-10 16%- Towns- Brooklyn. 60% B, 17% L.
NY-15 16%- Rangel- Harlem (Manhattan). 31% B, 48% L.
TX-09 17%- Green- Houston. 37% B, 33% L.
TX-16 17%- Reyes- El Paso. 78% L.
CA-37 17%- Richardson- Long Beach, south central LA. 25% B, 43% L, 11% A.
CA-47 17%- Loretta Sanchez- Anaheim (Orange County). 65% L, 14% A.
IL-04 18%- Gutierrez- mostly in Chicago. 74% L.
FL-17 18%- Meek- Miami area. 55% B, 21% L.
TX-18 20%- Jackson Lee- Houston. 40% B, 36% L.
CA-33 20%- Watson- western LA. 30% B, 35% L, 12% A.
Of these 17, four are in New York City, one is in Chicago, one is in the Miami area, two are in Houston, one is in El Paso, and 8 are in the Los Angeles area. These are all Democratic. The three least white Republican-controlled districts (less than 30% non-Latino white) are the exceptional Miami-area Latino-majority districts of the Diaz-Balart brothers and Ileana Ros-Lehtinen. There are four other Republican-controlled districts which are under 50% non-Latino white in New Mexico and California, with the least white, 44%, in the southern New Mexico district of Steve Pearce.
In the Northeast, 24 of 92 seats are less than 65% non-Latino white, of which 1 is in Massachusetts, 12 are in New York, 5 are in New Jersey, 2 are in Pennsylvania, and 4 are in Maryland. All 24 seats are currently Democratic, and are rated as safe Democratic.
The Massachusetts seat (MA-08) is in the central part of the Boston area. The New York seats are NY-04, NY-05, NY-06 (majority B), NY-07, NY-09, NY-10 (majority B), NY-11 (majority B), NY-12, NY-15, NY-16 (majority L), NY-17, and NY-28. These are all entirely in New York City except NY-17, which is partially in the northern suburbs, and NY-28, which is a narrow strip connecting parts of the Buffalo and Rochester areas. The New Jersey seats are NJ-06, NJ-08, NJ-09, NJ-10 (majority B), and NJ-13, which are all in the inner suburbs of New York City. The Pennsylvania seats are PA-01 and PA-02 (majority B) in Philadelphia. The Maryland seats are MD-04 (majority B), MD-05, MD-07 (majority B), and MD-08. MD-07 is largely in Baltimore and the other three are mostly in the Washington suburbs with MD-05 containing substantial rural area east of Washington DC.
In the Midwest, 12 of 100 seats are less than 65% white, of which 1 is in Ohio, 2 are in Michigan, 1 is in Indiana, 5 are in Illinois, 1 is in Wisconsin, and 2 are in Missouri. IN-07 (63% white) is rated as competitive.
The Ohio seat, OH-11 (majority B), is mostly in Cleveland. The Michigan seats, MI-13 (majority B) and MI-14 (majority B), are mostly in Detroit. The Indiana seat, IN-07, is entirely in Indianapolis. The Illinois seats, IL-01 (majority B), IL-02 (majority B), IL-04 (majority L), IL-07 (majority B), and IL-09, are all in Chicago. The Wisconsin seat, WI-04, is mostly in Milwaukee. The Missouri seats, MO-01 (majority B) and MO-05, are mostly in St. Louis and Kansas City respectively.
In the South, 54 of 145 seats are less than 65% white, of which 4 are in Virginia, 6 are in North Carolina, 2 are in South Carolina, 7 are in Georgia, 2 are in Alabama, 1 is in Tennessee, 7 are in Florida, 2 are in Mississippi, 4 are in Louisiana, and 19 are in Texas. VA-02 (67%), VA-04 (62%), NC-08 (62%), GA-03 (56%), GA-11 (62%), AL-03 (65%), FL-18 (30%, majority L), FL-21 (21%, majority L), and FL-25 (24%, majority L), MS-03 (64%), LA-04 (62%), LA-05 (63%), TX-02 (64%), TX-03 (63%), TX-11 (65%), TX-19 (64%), TX-24 (64%), and TX-32 (50%) are held by Republicans with VA-02, NC-08, FL-21, FL-25, LA-04 rated as competitive. The Democratic-held seats GA-12 (52%), LA-06 (63%), and TX-23 (41%, majority L) are rated as competitive.
The Virginia seats are VA-02, VA-03 (majority B), VA-04, and VA-08. The first three are in the area around Norfolk and Richmond including major rural areas and VA-08 is in the Washington DC area. The North Carolina seats are NC-01 (majority B), NC-02, NC-07, NC-08, NC-12, and NC-13. These are in the east and central parts of the state with all except NC-13 (a narrow strip connecting Charlotte to Winston-Salem and Greensboro) having major rural areas. NC-02 has a large part of the Raleigh area. SC-05 and SC-06 (majority B) are mostly rural areas in the eastern part of the state. The Georgia seats are GA-02, GA-03, GA-04 (majority B), GA-05 (majority B), GA-11, GA-12, and GA-13. Of these, GA-02 and GA-12 are mostly rural areas in southern Georgia and the rest are primarily in the Atlanta area with GA-03 and GA-11, which are both Republican-held, containing significant rural areas. The Alabama seats are AL-03 and AL-07, of which AL-07 (majority B) contains much of the Birmingham area and AL-03 is a more rural area in the southern part of the state. The Tennessee seat TN-09 (majority B) is mostly in Memphis.
The Florida seats are FL-03, FL-11, FL-17 (majority B), FL-18 (majority L), FL-21 (majority L), FL-23 (majority B), and FL-25 (majority L). FL-03 is in central Florida near Orlando with a large rural area, FL-11 is in Tampa, and the other five are in the Miami metropolitan area.
The Mississippi seats MS-02 (majority B) and MS-03 are mostly rural areas, splitting Jackson between them. The Louisiana seats are LA-02 (majority B), LA-04, LA-05, and LA-06. LA-02 is in New Orleans, LA-06 is mostly in the Baton Rouge area, and LA-04 and LA-05 are the mostly rural northern part of the state. The Texas seats are TX-02, TX-03, TX-09, TX-11, TX-14, TX-15 (majority L), TX-16 (majority L), TX-18, TX-19, TX-20 (majority L), TX-22, TX-23 (majority L), TX-24, TX-25 (majority L), TX-27 (majority L), TX-28 (majority L), TX-29 (majority L), TX-30, and TX-32. TX-02 and TX-14 are rural East Texas areas with some of the Houston area, TX-22 is in suburban Houston, and TX-09, TX-18, and TX-29 are in central Houston. TX-03, TX-24 is in the Dallas suburbs while TX-30 and TX-32 are in central Dallas. TX-11 and TX-19 (Lubbock) are in rural west Texas. TX-15, TX-16, TX-20, TX-23, TX-25, TX-27, TX-28 are "Latin Texas", the southern half of the state, with TX-16 in El Paso, TX-20 in San Antonio, and TX-25 in Austin.
In the West, 52 of 98 seats are less than 65% white, of which 1 is in Colorado, 3 are in New Mexico, 3 are in Arizona, 1 is in Nevada, 42 are in California, and 2 are in Hawaii. NM-01 (49%), NM-02 (44%), AZ-01 (58%), CA-19 (60%), CA-21 (46%), CA-25 (57%), CA-26 (53%), CA-40 (49%), CA-41 (64%), CA-42 (54%), CA-44 (51%), CA-45 (50%), CA-46 (63%), CA-49 (58%) are Republican-held, with NM-01, NM-02 rated as competitive. The Democratic-held seat CA-11 (64%) is rated as competitive.
The Colorado seat CO-01 is in Denver. The New Mexico seats are the entire state, with NM-03 north of Albuquerque having a high Native American population. AZ-01 is the less populated northern part of the state with a large Native American population. AZ-04 (majority L) is central Phoenix and AZ-07 (majority L) extends from the Phoenix area to Tucson and the Mexican border. NV-01 is in central Las Vegas. The Hawaii seats are the entire state. HI-01 in Honolulu is the only majority-Asian district, and HI-02 would have a large Native American population in the Census if the US hadn't declared native Hawaiians not to be "Indians" in order to prevent established law on native land claims from being applied to the conquest of Hawaii.
The California seats are CA-05, 07, 08, 09, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20 (majority L), 21, 23, 25, 26, 27, 28 (majority L), 29, 31 (majority L), 32 (majority L), 33, 34 (majority L), 35, 36, 37, 38 (majority L), 39 (majority L), 40, 41, 42, 43, 44, 45, 46, 47 (majority L), 49, 51 (majority L), and 53. The metropolitan districts are CA-06 through CA-16 in the Bay Area, CA-25 through CA-49 in the Los Angeles area, and CA-50 through CA-53 in the San Diego area. Since 42 of the 53 districts are less than 65% white, it is more illuminating to describe the districts which are more than 65% white. CA-01, CA-02, CA-03, and CA-04 are the part of California north of Sacramento and the Bay Area, with CA-06 being in the Bay Area north of the Golden Gate Bridge. CA-22 is the south end of the Central Valley around Bakersfield and the coast to the west and CA-24 is the area to the northwest of the Los Angeles area around the "ranches" of Ronald Reagan and Michael Jackson. In the Los Angeles area, CA-30 is around Beverly Hills and Santa Monica and CA-48 is in southern Orange County around Irvine. CA-50 and CA-52 are suburban areas north of San Diego.
More Fun with the Partisan Voting Index- The Center
Of the 435 Congressional districts, 105 voted within five points of the national average of the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections.
The numbers after the incumbent name and party affiliation are percentages of non-Latino white, black, Latino, and Asian people. Of the 105 seats in the center, Republicans hold a 54-51
advantage.
The Northeast has 92 House seats, of which 25 are in the center. Competitive Democratic-held seats (9 of 11) are ME-02, NH-01, NH-02, CT-05, NY-19, NY-20, NY-24, PA-04, PA-08 and of the Republican-held seats, NY-25, NY-26, NJ-03, NJ-05, NJ-07, PA-03, PA-06, PA-15, PA-18 (9 of 14) are competitive.
ME-02 (D+4)- Michaud (D)- 97, 0, 1, 0
NH-01 (Even)- Shea-Porter (D)- 95, 1, 2, 1
NH-02 (D+3)- Hodes (D)- 95, 1, 2, 1
CT-05 (D+4)- Murphy (D)- 80, 5, 11, 2
NY-01 (D+3)- Bishop (D)- 84, 4, 8, 2
NY-03 (D+2)- King (R)- 87, 2, 7 , 3
NY-13 (D+1)- Fossella (R)- 71, 6, 11, 9
NY-19 (R+1)- Hall (D)- 84, 5, 8, 2
NY-20 (R+3)- Gillibrand (D)- 93, 2, 2, 1
NY-23 (Even)- McHugh (R)- 93, 3, 2, 1
NY-24 (R+1)- Arcuri (D)- 92, 3, 2, 1
NY-25 (D+3)- Walsh (R)- 87, 7, 2, 2
NY-26 (R+3)- Reynolds (R)- 92, 3, 2, 2
NJ-02 (D+4)- LoBiondo (R)- 72, 14, 10, 2
NJ-03 (D+3)- Saxton (R)- 83, 9, 4, 3
NJ-04 (R+1)- Smith (R)- 81, 8, 8, 2
NJ-05 (R+4)- Garrett (R)- 86, 1, 4, 7
NJ-07 (R+1)- Ferguson (R)- 79, 4, 7, 8
PA-03 (R+2)- English (R)- 94, 3, 1, 0
PA-04 (R+3)- Altmire (D)- 94, 3, 1, 1
PA-06 (D+2)- Gerlach (R)- 86, 7, 4, 2
PA-07 (D+4)- Sestak (D)- 88, 5, 1, 4
PA-08 (D+3)- Murphy (D)- 91, 3, 2, 2
PA-15 (D+2)- Dent (R)- 86, 3, 8, 2
PA-18 (R+2)- Murphy (R)- 95, 2, 1, 1
The Midwest has 100 House seats, of which 31 are in the center. Competitive Democratic-held seats (4 of 10) are IN-02, WI-08, MN-01, and KS-03 and of the Republican-held seats, OH-01, OH-14, OH-15, MI-07, MI-09, IL-06, IL-10, IL-11, and MN-03 (9 of 21) are competitive.
OH-01 (R+1)- Chabot (R)- 69, 27, 1, 1
OH-03 (R+3)- Turner (R)- 79, 17, 1, 1
OH-06 (Even)- Wilson (D)- 95, 2, 1, 0
OH-12 (R+1)- Tiberi (R)- 72, 22, 2, 2
OH-14 (R+2)- LaTourette (R)- 94, 2, 1, 1
OH-15 (R+1)- Pryce (R)- 85, 7, 2, 3
OH-16 (R+4)- Regula (R)- 92, 5, 1, 1
MI-01 (R+2)- Stupak (D)- 94, 1, 1, 0
MI-04 (R+3)- Camp (R)- 93, 2, 2, 1
MI-06 (R+2)- Upton (R)- 84, 9, 4, 1
MI-07 (R+2)- Walberg (R)- 88, 6, 3, 1
MI-08 (R+2)- Rogers (R)- 88, 5, 3, 2
MI-09 (Even)- Knollenberg (R)- 81, 8, 3, 6
MI-10 (R+4)- Miller (R)- 94, 1, 2, 1
MI-11 (R+1)- McCotter (R)- 90, 4, 2, 3
IN-02 (R+4)- Donnelly (D)- 84, 8, 5, 1
IL-06 (R+3)- Roskam (R)- 75, 3, 12, 8
IL-10 (D+4)- Kirk (R)- 75, 5, 12, 6
IL-11 (R+1)- Weller (R)- 84, 8, 7, 1
IL-16 (R+4)- Manzullo (R)- 86, 5, 6, 1
WI-01 (R+2)- Ryan (R)- 87, 5, 6, 1
WI-03 (D+3)- Kind (D)- 96, 0, 1, 1
WI-07 (D+2)- Obey (D)- 95, 0, 1, 1
WI-08 (Even)- Kagen (D)- 92, 1, 2, 1
MN-01 (R+1)- Walz (D)- 93, 1, 3, 2
MN-02 (R+3)- Kline (R)- 92, 2, 3, 2
MN-03 (R+1)- Ramstad (R)- 89, 4, 2, 4
MN-08 (D+4)- Oberstar (D)- 95, 1, 1, 0
IA-03 (D+1)- Boswell (D)- 90, 3, 3, 2
IA-04 (Even)- Lathem (R)- 95, 1, 3, 1
KS-03 (R+4)- Moore (D)- 80, 9, 7, 3
The South has 145 House seats, of which 33 are in the center. Competitive Democratic-held seats (4 of 21) are GA-12, FL-16, FL-22, TX-23 and of the Republican-held seats, VA-11, NC-08, FL-08, FL-13, FL-15, FL-24, FL-25 (7 of 12) are competitive.
VA-11 (R+1)- Davis (R)- 67, 10, 9, 11
WV-03 (Even)- Rahall (D)- 94, 4, 1, 0
NC-02 (R+3)- Etheridge (D)- 59, 30, 8, 1
NC-07 (R+3)- McIntyre (D)- 63, 23, 4, 0
NC-08 (R+3)- Hayes (R)- 62, 27, 7, 2
NC-13 (D+2)- Miller (D)- 63, 27, 6, 2
KY-03 (D+2)- Yarmuth (D)- 76, 19, 2, 1
TN-04 (R+3)- Davis (D)- 93, 4, 2, 0
TN-06 (R+4)- Goodman (D)- 89, 6, 3, 1
TN-08 (Even)- Tanner (D)- 74, 22, 2, 0
AL-03 (R+4)- Rogers (R)- 65, 32, 1, 1
GA-02 (D+2)- Bishop (D)- 50, 44, 3, 1
GA-12 (D+2)- Barrow (D)- 52, 42, 3, 1
FL-02 (R+2)- Boyd (D)- 72, 22, 3, 1
FL-07 (R+3)- Mica (R)- 81, 9, 7, 1
FL-08 (R+3)- Keller (R)- 70, 7, 18, 3
FL-09 (R+4)- Bilirakis (R)- 85, 4, 8, 2
FL-10 (D+1)- Young (R)- 88, 4, 4, 2
FL-13 (R+4)- Buchanan (R)- 86, 4, 8, 1
FL-15 (R+4)- Weldon (R)- 78, 7, 11, 2
FL-16 (R+2)- Mahoney (D)- 82, 6, 10, 1
FL-18 (R+4)- Ros-Lehtinen (R)- 30, 6, 63, 1
FL-22 (D+4)- Klein (D)- 82, 4, 11, 2
FL-24 (R+3)- Feeney (R)- 80, 6, 10, 2
FL-25 (R+4)- M. Diaz-Balart (R)- 24, 10, 62, 2
AR-01 (D+1)- Berry (D)- 80, 17, 2, 0
AR-02 (Even)- Snyder (D)- 76, 19, 2, 1
AR-04 (Even)- Ross (D)- 71, 24, 3, 0
TX-15 (D+3)- Hinojosa (D)- 27, 3, 69, 0
TX-23 (R+4)- Rodriguez (D)- 41, 2, 55, 1
TX-25 (D+1)- Doggett (D)- 22, 7, 69, 1
TX-27 (R+1)- Ortiz (D)- 28, 2, 68, 1
TX-28 (R+1)- Cuellar (D)- 28, 6, 65, 0
The West has 98 House seats, of which 16 are in the center. Competitive Democratic-held seats (4 of 9) are AZ-05, AZ-08, CA-11, OR-05 and of the Republican-held seats, NM-01, AZ-01, NV-03, WA-08 (4 of 7) are competitive.
CO-07 (D+2)- Perlmutter (D)- 69, 6, 20, 3
NM-01 (D+2)- Wilson (R)- 49, 2, 43, 2
AZ-01 (R+2)- Renzi (R)- 58, 1, 16, 1
AZ-05 (R+4)- Mitchell (D)- 77, 3, 13, 3
AZ-08 (R+1)- Giffords (D)- 74, 3, 18, 2
NV-03 (D+1)- Porter (R)- 69, 5, 16, 6
CA-11 (R+3)- McNerney (D)- 64, 3, 20, 9
CA-18 (D+3)- Cardoza (D)- 39, 6, 42, 9
CA-26 (R+4)- Dreier (R)- 53, 4, 24, 15
CA-45 (R+3)- Bono Mack (R)- 50, 6, 38, 3
OR-04 (Even)- DeFazio (D)- 90, 1, 4, 2
OR-05 (D+1)- Hooley (D)- 84, 1, 10, 2
WA-02 (D+3)- Larsen (D)- 86, 1, 6, 3
WA-03 (Even)- Baird (D)- 88, 1, 5, 3
WA-08 (D+2)- Reichert (R)- 82, 2, 4, 8
The numbers after the incumbent name and party affiliation are percentages of non-Latino white, black, Latino, and Asian people. Of the 105 seats in the center, Republicans hold a 54-51
advantage.
The Northeast has 92 House seats, of which 25 are in the center. Competitive Democratic-held seats (9 of 11) are ME-02, NH-01, NH-02, CT-05, NY-19, NY-20, NY-24, PA-04, PA-08 and of the Republican-held seats, NY-25, NY-26, NJ-03, NJ-05, NJ-07, PA-03, PA-06, PA-15, PA-18 (9 of 14) are competitive.
ME-02 (D+4)- Michaud (D)- 97, 0, 1, 0
NH-01 (Even)- Shea-Porter (D)- 95, 1, 2, 1
NH-02 (D+3)- Hodes (D)- 95, 1, 2, 1
CT-05 (D+4)- Murphy (D)- 80, 5, 11, 2
NY-01 (D+3)- Bishop (D)- 84, 4, 8, 2
NY-03 (D+2)- King (R)- 87, 2, 7 , 3
NY-13 (D+1)- Fossella (R)- 71, 6, 11, 9
NY-19 (R+1)- Hall (D)- 84, 5, 8, 2
NY-20 (R+3)- Gillibrand (D)- 93, 2, 2, 1
NY-23 (Even)- McHugh (R)- 93, 3, 2, 1
NY-24 (R+1)- Arcuri (D)- 92, 3, 2, 1
NY-25 (D+3)- Walsh (R)- 87, 7, 2, 2
NY-26 (R+3)- Reynolds (R)- 92, 3, 2, 2
NJ-02 (D+4)- LoBiondo (R)- 72, 14, 10, 2
NJ-03 (D+3)- Saxton (R)- 83, 9, 4, 3
NJ-04 (R+1)- Smith (R)- 81, 8, 8, 2
NJ-05 (R+4)- Garrett (R)- 86, 1, 4, 7
NJ-07 (R+1)- Ferguson (R)- 79, 4, 7, 8
PA-03 (R+2)- English (R)- 94, 3, 1, 0
PA-04 (R+3)- Altmire (D)- 94, 3, 1, 1
PA-06 (D+2)- Gerlach (R)- 86, 7, 4, 2
PA-07 (D+4)- Sestak (D)- 88, 5, 1, 4
PA-08 (D+3)- Murphy (D)- 91, 3, 2, 2
PA-15 (D+2)- Dent (R)- 86, 3, 8, 2
PA-18 (R+2)- Murphy (R)- 95, 2, 1, 1
The Midwest has 100 House seats, of which 31 are in the center. Competitive Democratic-held seats (4 of 10) are IN-02, WI-08, MN-01, and KS-03 and of the Republican-held seats, OH-01, OH-14, OH-15, MI-07, MI-09, IL-06, IL-10, IL-11, and MN-03 (9 of 21) are competitive.
OH-01 (R+1)- Chabot (R)- 69, 27, 1, 1
OH-03 (R+3)- Turner (R)- 79, 17, 1, 1
OH-06 (Even)- Wilson (D)- 95, 2, 1, 0
OH-12 (R+1)- Tiberi (R)- 72, 22, 2, 2
OH-14 (R+2)- LaTourette (R)- 94, 2, 1, 1
OH-15 (R+1)- Pryce (R)- 85, 7, 2, 3
OH-16 (R+4)- Regula (R)- 92, 5, 1, 1
MI-01 (R+2)- Stupak (D)- 94, 1, 1, 0
MI-04 (R+3)- Camp (R)- 93, 2, 2, 1
MI-06 (R+2)- Upton (R)- 84, 9, 4, 1
MI-07 (R+2)- Walberg (R)- 88, 6, 3, 1
MI-08 (R+2)- Rogers (R)- 88, 5, 3, 2
MI-09 (Even)- Knollenberg (R)- 81, 8, 3, 6
MI-10 (R+4)- Miller (R)- 94, 1, 2, 1
MI-11 (R+1)- McCotter (R)- 90, 4, 2, 3
IN-02 (R+4)- Donnelly (D)- 84, 8, 5, 1
IL-06 (R+3)- Roskam (R)- 75, 3, 12, 8
IL-10 (D+4)- Kirk (R)- 75, 5, 12, 6
IL-11 (R+1)- Weller (R)- 84, 8, 7, 1
IL-16 (R+4)- Manzullo (R)- 86, 5, 6, 1
WI-01 (R+2)- Ryan (R)- 87, 5, 6, 1
WI-03 (D+3)- Kind (D)- 96, 0, 1, 1
WI-07 (D+2)- Obey (D)- 95, 0, 1, 1
WI-08 (Even)- Kagen (D)- 92, 1, 2, 1
MN-01 (R+1)- Walz (D)- 93, 1, 3, 2
MN-02 (R+3)- Kline (R)- 92, 2, 3, 2
MN-03 (R+1)- Ramstad (R)- 89, 4, 2, 4
MN-08 (D+4)- Oberstar (D)- 95, 1, 1, 0
IA-03 (D+1)- Boswell (D)- 90, 3, 3, 2
IA-04 (Even)- Lathem (R)- 95, 1, 3, 1
KS-03 (R+4)- Moore (D)- 80, 9, 7, 3
The South has 145 House seats, of which 33 are in the center. Competitive Democratic-held seats (4 of 21) are GA-12, FL-16, FL-22, TX-23 and of the Republican-held seats, VA-11, NC-08, FL-08, FL-13, FL-15, FL-24, FL-25 (7 of 12) are competitive.
VA-11 (R+1)- Davis (R)- 67, 10, 9, 11
WV-03 (Even)- Rahall (D)- 94, 4, 1, 0
NC-02 (R+3)- Etheridge (D)- 59, 30, 8, 1
NC-07 (R+3)- McIntyre (D)- 63, 23, 4, 0
NC-08 (R+3)- Hayes (R)- 62, 27, 7, 2
NC-13 (D+2)- Miller (D)- 63, 27, 6, 2
KY-03 (D+2)- Yarmuth (D)- 76, 19, 2, 1
TN-04 (R+3)- Davis (D)- 93, 4, 2, 0
TN-06 (R+4)- Goodman (D)- 89, 6, 3, 1
TN-08 (Even)- Tanner (D)- 74, 22, 2, 0
AL-03 (R+4)- Rogers (R)- 65, 32, 1, 1
GA-02 (D+2)- Bishop (D)- 50, 44, 3, 1
GA-12 (D+2)- Barrow (D)- 52, 42, 3, 1
FL-02 (R+2)- Boyd (D)- 72, 22, 3, 1
FL-07 (R+3)- Mica (R)- 81, 9, 7, 1
FL-08 (R+3)- Keller (R)- 70, 7, 18, 3
FL-09 (R+4)- Bilirakis (R)- 85, 4, 8, 2
FL-10 (D+1)- Young (R)- 88, 4, 4, 2
FL-13 (R+4)- Buchanan (R)- 86, 4, 8, 1
FL-15 (R+4)- Weldon (R)- 78, 7, 11, 2
FL-16 (R+2)- Mahoney (D)- 82, 6, 10, 1
FL-18 (R+4)- Ros-Lehtinen (R)- 30, 6, 63, 1
FL-22 (D+4)- Klein (D)- 82, 4, 11, 2
FL-24 (R+3)- Feeney (R)- 80, 6, 10, 2
FL-25 (R+4)- M. Diaz-Balart (R)- 24, 10, 62, 2
AR-01 (D+1)- Berry (D)- 80, 17, 2, 0
AR-02 (Even)- Snyder (D)- 76, 19, 2, 1
AR-04 (Even)- Ross (D)- 71, 24, 3, 0
TX-15 (D+3)- Hinojosa (D)- 27, 3, 69, 0
TX-23 (R+4)- Rodriguez (D)- 41, 2, 55, 1
TX-25 (D+1)- Doggett (D)- 22, 7, 69, 1
TX-27 (R+1)- Ortiz (D)- 28, 2, 68, 1
TX-28 (R+1)- Cuellar (D)- 28, 6, 65, 0
The West has 98 House seats, of which 16 are in the center. Competitive Democratic-held seats (4 of 9) are AZ-05, AZ-08, CA-11, OR-05 and of the Republican-held seats, NM-01, AZ-01, NV-03, WA-08 (4 of 7) are competitive.
CO-07 (D+2)- Perlmutter (D)- 69, 6, 20, 3
NM-01 (D+2)- Wilson (R)- 49, 2, 43, 2
AZ-01 (R+2)- Renzi (R)- 58, 1, 16, 1
AZ-05 (R+4)- Mitchell (D)- 77, 3, 13, 3
AZ-08 (R+1)- Giffords (D)- 74, 3, 18, 2
NV-03 (D+1)- Porter (R)- 69, 5, 16, 6
CA-11 (R+3)- McNerney (D)- 64, 3, 20, 9
CA-18 (D+3)- Cardoza (D)- 39, 6, 42, 9
CA-26 (R+4)- Dreier (R)- 53, 4, 24, 15
CA-45 (R+3)- Bono Mack (R)- 50, 6, 38, 3
OR-04 (Even)- DeFazio (D)- 90, 1, 4, 2
OR-05 (D+1)- Hooley (D)- 84, 1, 10, 2
WA-02 (D+3)- Larsen (D)- 86, 1, 6, 3
WA-03 (Even)- Baird (D)- 88, 1, 5, 3
WA-08 (D+2)- Reichert (R)- 82, 2, 4, 8
More Fun With the Partisan Voting Index-- Red or Blue Tendencies
In previous posts, I talked about seats with a strong Republican or Democratic tendencies. This post is about seats with a smaller deviation from the norm- seats with 5% to 9% away from average. The numbers after the incumbent name and party affiliation are percentages of non-Latino white, black, Latino, and Asian people. First, 68 seats have R+5 to R+9. Of these, Republicans hold a 42-26 advantage.
The Northeast has 92 House seats, of which 4 are R+5 to R+9. NY-29 is rated competitive. Of the 2 Democratic-held seats, PA-10 is rated as competitive but PA-17 is rated as safe Democratic.
NY-29 (R+5): Kuhl (R)- 93, 3, 1, 2
NJ-11 (R+6): Frelinghuysen (R)- 83, 3, 7, 6
PA-10 (R+8): Carney (D)- 95, 2, 1, 0
PA-17 (R+7): Holden (D)- 87, 7, 3, 1
The Midwest has 100 House seats, of which 21 are R+5 to R+9. IL-18, MN-06, MO-06, and MO-09 are rated competitive. Of the 7 Democratic-held seats, OH-18, IN-08, IN-09, IL-08, IL-14, and KS-02 are rated competitive but MN-07 is rated as safe Democratic.
OH-07 (R+6): Hobson (R)- 89, 7, 1, 1
OH-18 (R+6): Space (D)- 96, 2, 1, 0
MI-02 (R+9): Hoekstra (R)- 87, 4, 5, 1
MI-03 (R+9): Ehlers (R)- 82, 8, 6, 2
IN-08 (R+9): Ellsworth (D)- 94, 4, 1, 1
IN-09 (R+7): Hill (D)- 94, 2, 2, 1
IL-08 (R+5): Bean (D)- 79, 3, 11, 6
IL-13 (R+5): Biggert (R)- 82, 5, 5, 7
IL-14 (R+5): Foster (D)- 74, 5, 18, 2
IL-15 (R+6): Johnson (R)- 88, 6, 2, 2
IL-18 (R+5): LaHood (R)- 90, 6, 2, 1
IL-19 (R+8): Shimkus (R)- 94, 3, 1, 0
WI-06 (R+5): Petri (R)- 94, 1, 2, 1
MN-06 (R+5): Bachmann (R)- 95, 1, 1, 1
MN-07 (R+6): Peterson (D)- 93, 0, 3, 1
IA-05 (R+8): King (R)- 94, 1, 4, 1
MO-02 (R+9): Akin (R)- 93, 2, 1, 2
MO-06 (R+5): Graves (R)- 92, 3, 2, 1
MO-09 (R+7): Hulshof (R)- 93, 4, 1, 1
NE-02 (R+9): Terry (R)- 80, 10, 6, 2
KS-02 (R+7): Boyda (D)- 87, 5, 4, 1
The South has 145 House seats, of which 26 are R+5 to R+9. VA-02, WV-02, FL-21, LA-04 are rated competitive. Of the 11 Democratic-held seats, NC-11, GA-08, AL-05, LA-06, and TX-23 are rated competitive but VA-10, WV-01, SC-05, KY-06, LA-03, OK-02 are rated as safe Democratic.
VA-01 (R+9): Wittman (R)- 75, 18, 3, 2
VA-02 (R+6): Drake (R)- 67, 21, 4, 4
VA-04 (R+5): Forbes (R)- 62, 33, 2, 1
VA-05 (R+6): Goode (R)- 72, 24, 2, 1
VA-09 (R+7): Boucher (D)- 93, 4, 1, 1
VA-10 (R+5): Wolf (R)- 77, 7, 7, 7
WV-01 (R+6): Mollohan (D)- 96, 2, 1, 1
WV-02 (R+5): Capito (R)- 94, 4, 1, 1
NC-11 (R+7): Shuler (D)- 90, 5, 3, 0
SC-02 (R+9): Wilson (R)- 68, 23, 3, 1
SC-05 (R+6): Spratt (D)- 64, 32, 2, 1
KY-05 (R+8): Rogers (R)- 97, 1, 1, 0
KY-06 (R+7): Chandler (D)- 87, 8, 2, 1
TN-03 (R+8): Wamp (R)- 85, 11, 2, 1
GA-08 (R+8): Marshall (D)- 83, 13, 2, 1
AL-05 (R+6): Cramer (D)- 78, 17, 2, 1
FL-05 (R+5): Brown-Waite (R)- 88, 5, 6, 1
FL-06 (R+8): Stearns (R)- 79, 12, 5, 2
FL-12 (R+5): Putnam (R)- 72, 13, 12, 1
FL-21 (R+6): L. Diaz-Balart (R)- 21, 7, 70, 2
LA-03 (R+5): Melancon (D)- 70, 25, 2, 1
LA-04 (R+7): McCrery (R)- 62, 33, 2, 1
LA-06 (R+7): Cazayoux (D)- 63, 33, 2, 1
LA-07 (R+7): Boustany (R)- 72, 25, 1, 1
OK-02 (R+5): Boren (D)- 70, 4, 2, 0
TX-23 (R+4): Rodriguez (D)- 41, 2, 55, 1
The West has 98 House seats, of which 17 are R+5 to R+9. NM-02, AZ-03, NV-02 are rated competitive. Of the 6 Democratic-held seats, NC-11, GA-08, AL-05, LA-06, and TX-23 are rated competitive but CO-03 are rated as safe Democratic.
CO-03 (R+6): Salazar (D)- 75, 1, 21, 0
CO-04 (R+9): Musgrave (R)- 79, 1, 17, 1
NM-02 (R+6): Pearce (R)- 44, 2, 47, 1
AZ-02 (R+9): Franks (R)- 78, 2, 14, 2
AZ-03 (R+6): Shadegg (R)- 79, 2, 14, 2
NV-02 (R+8): Heller (R)- 75, 2, 15, 3
CA-03 (R+7): Lungren (R)- 74, 4, 11, 6
CA-24 (R+5): Gallegly (R)- 69, 2, 22, 4
CA-25 (R+7): McKeon (R)- 57, 8, 27, 4
CA-40 (R+8): Royce (R)- 49, 2, 30, 16
CA-41 (R+9): Lewis (R)- 64, 5, 23, 4
CA-44 (R+6): Calvert (R)- 51, 5, 35, 5
CA-46 (R+6): Rohrabacher (R)- 63, 1, 17, 15
CA-48 (R+8): Campbell (R)- 68, 1, 15, 13
CA-50 (R+5): Bilbray (R)- 66, 2, 19, 10
CA-52 (R+9): Hunter (R)- 73, 4, 14, 5
WA-05 (R+7): Rodgers (R)- 88, 1, 5, 2
-------------------------
49 seats have D+5 to D+9. Of these, Democrats hold an impressive 47-2 advantage.
The Northeast has 92 House seats, of which 19 are D+5 to D+9. ME-01, MA-05, and CT-02 are rated competitive. Of the 2 Republican-held seats, CT-04 is rated as competitive but DE is rated as safe Republican.
ME-01 (D+6)- Allen (D)- 96, 1, 1, 1
VT (D+8)- Welch (D)- 96, 0, 1, 1
MA-05 (D+9)- Tsongas (D)- 80, 2, 12, 5
MA-10 (D+8)- Delahunt (D)- 92, 2, 1, 3
CT-02 (D+8)- Courtney (D)- 89, 3, 4, 2
CT-04 (D+5)- Shays (R)- 71, 11, 13, 3
NY-02 (D+7)- Israel (D)- 72, 10, 14, 3
NY-04 (D+9)- McCarthy (D)- 62, 18, 14, 4
NY-21 (D+9)- McNulty (D)- 85, 7, 3, 2
NY-22 (D+6)- Hinchey (D)- 80, 8, 8, 3
NY-27 (D+7)- Higgins (D)- 89, 4, 5, 1
NJ-12 (D+8)- Holt (D)- 72, 11, 5, 9
PA-11 (D+5)- Kanjorski (D)- 93, 2, 3, 1
PA-12 (D+5)- Murtha (D)- 95, 3, 1, 0
PA-13 (D+8)- Schwartz (D)- 86, 6, 3, 4
DE (D+7)- Castle (R)- 72, 19, 5, 2
MD-02 (D+8)- Ruppersburger (D)- 66, 27, 2, 2
MD-03 (D+7)- Sarbanes (D)- 76, 16, 3, 3
MD-05 (D+9)- Hoyer (D)- 60, 30, 3, 4
The Midwest has 100 House seats, of which 11 are D+5 to D+9. IN-07 is rated competitive. None of these seats are in Republican hands.
OH-09 (D+9)- Kaptur (D)- 80, 14, 4, 1
OH-10 (D+6)- Kucinich (D)- 87, 4, 5, 2
OH-13 (D+6)- Sutton (D)- 82, 12, 4, 1
IN-01 (D+8)- Visclosky (D)- 70, 18, 10, 1
IN-07 (D+9)- Carson (D)- 63, 29, 4, 1
IL-12 (D+5)- Costello (D)- 80, 16, 2, 1
IL-17 (D+5)- Hare (D)- 87, 7, 4, 1
MN-08 (D+4)- Oberstar (D)- 95, 1, 1, 0
IA-01 (D+5)- Braley (D)- 92, 4, 2, 1
IA-02 (D+7)- Loebsack (D)- 92, 2, 3, 2
MO-03 (D+8)- Boswell (D)- 90, 3, 3, 2
The South has 145 House seats, of which 6 are D+5 to D+9. None are rated competitive. None of these seats are in Republican hands.
NC-01 (D+9)- Butterfield (D)- 44, 50, 3, 0
NC-04 (D+6)- Price (D)- 69, 21, 5, 4
TN-05 (D+6)- Cooper (D)- 68, 23, 4, 2
TX-16 (D+9)- Reyes (D)- 17, 3, 78, 1
TX-20 (D+8)- Gonzalez (D)- 23, 7, 67, 1
TX-29 (D+8)- Green (D)- 22, 10, 66, 1
The West has 98 House seats, of which 13 are D+5 to D+9. None are rated competitive. None of these seats are in Republican hands.
CO-02 (D+8)- M. Udall (D)- 79, 1, 15, 3
NM-03 (D+6)- T. Udall (D)- 41, 1, 36, 1
NV-01 (D+1)- Berkley (D)- 52, 12, 28, 5
CA-10 (D+9)- Tauscher (D)- 65, 6, 15, 9
CA-20 (D+5)- Costa (D)- 21, 7, 63, 6
CA-23 (D+9)- Capps (D)- 49, 2, 42, 5
CA-47 (D+5)- L. Sanchez (D)- 17, 1, 65, 14
CA-51 (D+7)- Filner (D)- 21, 9, 53, 12
OR-01 (D+6)- Wu (D)- 81, 1, 9, 5
WA-01 (D+7)- Inslee (D)- 82, 2, 4, 8
WA-06 (D+6)- Dicks (D)- 78, 6, 5, 4
WA-09 (D+6)- Smith (D)- 73, 6, 7, 7
HI-01 (D+7)- Abercrombie (D)- 18, 2, 5, 54
The Northeast has 92 House seats, of which 4 are R+5 to R+9. NY-29 is rated competitive. Of the 2 Democratic-held seats, PA-10 is rated as competitive but PA-17 is rated as safe Democratic.
NY-29 (R+5): Kuhl (R)- 93, 3, 1, 2
NJ-11 (R+6): Frelinghuysen (R)- 83, 3, 7, 6
PA-10 (R+8): Carney (D)- 95, 2, 1, 0
PA-17 (R+7): Holden (D)- 87, 7, 3, 1
The Midwest has 100 House seats, of which 21 are R+5 to R+9. IL-18, MN-06, MO-06, and MO-09 are rated competitive. Of the 7 Democratic-held seats, OH-18, IN-08, IN-09, IL-08, IL-14, and KS-02 are rated competitive but MN-07 is rated as safe Democratic.
OH-07 (R+6): Hobson (R)- 89, 7, 1, 1
OH-18 (R+6): Space (D)- 96, 2, 1, 0
MI-02 (R+9): Hoekstra (R)- 87, 4, 5, 1
MI-03 (R+9): Ehlers (R)- 82, 8, 6, 2
IN-08 (R+9): Ellsworth (D)- 94, 4, 1, 1
IN-09 (R+7): Hill (D)- 94, 2, 2, 1
IL-08 (R+5): Bean (D)- 79, 3, 11, 6
IL-13 (R+5): Biggert (R)- 82, 5, 5, 7
IL-14 (R+5): Foster (D)- 74, 5, 18, 2
IL-15 (R+6): Johnson (R)- 88, 6, 2, 2
IL-18 (R+5): LaHood (R)- 90, 6, 2, 1
IL-19 (R+8): Shimkus (R)- 94, 3, 1, 0
WI-06 (R+5): Petri (R)- 94, 1, 2, 1
MN-06 (R+5): Bachmann (R)- 95, 1, 1, 1
MN-07 (R+6): Peterson (D)- 93, 0, 3, 1
IA-05 (R+8): King (R)- 94, 1, 4, 1
MO-02 (R+9): Akin (R)- 93, 2, 1, 2
MO-06 (R+5): Graves (R)- 92, 3, 2, 1
MO-09 (R+7): Hulshof (R)- 93, 4, 1, 1
NE-02 (R+9): Terry (R)- 80, 10, 6, 2
KS-02 (R+7): Boyda (D)- 87, 5, 4, 1
The South has 145 House seats, of which 26 are R+5 to R+9. VA-02, WV-02, FL-21, LA-04 are rated competitive. Of the 11 Democratic-held seats, NC-11, GA-08, AL-05, LA-06, and TX-23 are rated competitive but VA-10, WV-01, SC-05, KY-06, LA-03, OK-02 are rated as safe Democratic.
VA-01 (R+9): Wittman (R)- 75, 18, 3, 2
VA-02 (R+6): Drake (R)- 67, 21, 4, 4
VA-04 (R+5): Forbes (R)- 62, 33, 2, 1
VA-05 (R+6): Goode (R)- 72, 24, 2, 1
VA-09 (R+7): Boucher (D)- 93, 4, 1, 1
VA-10 (R+5): Wolf (R)- 77, 7, 7, 7
WV-01 (R+6): Mollohan (D)- 96, 2, 1, 1
WV-02 (R+5): Capito (R)- 94, 4, 1, 1
NC-11 (R+7): Shuler (D)- 90, 5, 3, 0
SC-02 (R+9): Wilson (R)- 68, 23, 3, 1
SC-05 (R+6): Spratt (D)- 64, 32, 2, 1
KY-05 (R+8): Rogers (R)- 97, 1, 1, 0
KY-06 (R+7): Chandler (D)- 87, 8, 2, 1
TN-03 (R+8): Wamp (R)- 85, 11, 2, 1
GA-08 (R+8): Marshall (D)- 83, 13, 2, 1
AL-05 (R+6): Cramer (D)- 78, 17, 2, 1
FL-05 (R+5): Brown-Waite (R)- 88, 5, 6, 1
FL-06 (R+8): Stearns (R)- 79, 12, 5, 2
FL-12 (R+5): Putnam (R)- 72, 13, 12, 1
FL-21 (R+6): L. Diaz-Balart (R)- 21, 7, 70, 2
LA-03 (R+5): Melancon (D)- 70, 25, 2, 1
LA-04 (R+7): McCrery (R)- 62, 33, 2, 1
LA-06 (R+7): Cazayoux (D)- 63, 33, 2, 1
LA-07 (R+7): Boustany (R)- 72, 25, 1, 1
OK-02 (R+5): Boren (D)- 70, 4, 2, 0
TX-23 (R+4): Rodriguez (D)- 41, 2, 55, 1
The West has 98 House seats, of which 17 are R+5 to R+9. NM-02, AZ-03, NV-02 are rated competitive. Of the 6 Democratic-held seats, NC-11, GA-08, AL-05, LA-06, and TX-23 are rated competitive but CO-03 are rated as safe Democratic.
CO-03 (R+6): Salazar (D)- 75, 1, 21, 0
CO-04 (R+9): Musgrave (R)- 79, 1, 17, 1
NM-02 (R+6): Pearce (R)- 44, 2, 47, 1
AZ-02 (R+9): Franks (R)- 78, 2, 14, 2
AZ-03 (R+6): Shadegg (R)- 79, 2, 14, 2
NV-02 (R+8): Heller (R)- 75, 2, 15, 3
CA-03 (R+7): Lungren (R)- 74, 4, 11, 6
CA-24 (R+5): Gallegly (R)- 69, 2, 22, 4
CA-25 (R+7): McKeon (R)- 57, 8, 27, 4
CA-40 (R+8): Royce (R)- 49, 2, 30, 16
CA-41 (R+9): Lewis (R)- 64, 5, 23, 4
CA-44 (R+6): Calvert (R)- 51, 5, 35, 5
CA-46 (R+6): Rohrabacher (R)- 63, 1, 17, 15
CA-48 (R+8): Campbell (R)- 68, 1, 15, 13
CA-50 (R+5): Bilbray (R)- 66, 2, 19, 10
CA-52 (R+9): Hunter (R)- 73, 4, 14, 5
WA-05 (R+7): Rodgers (R)- 88, 1, 5, 2
-------------------------
49 seats have D+5 to D+9. Of these, Democrats hold an impressive 47-2 advantage.
The Northeast has 92 House seats, of which 19 are D+5 to D+9. ME-01, MA-05, and CT-02 are rated competitive. Of the 2 Republican-held seats, CT-04 is rated as competitive but DE is rated as safe Republican.
ME-01 (D+6)- Allen (D)- 96, 1, 1, 1
VT (D+8)- Welch (D)- 96, 0, 1, 1
MA-05 (D+9)- Tsongas (D)- 80, 2, 12, 5
MA-10 (D+8)- Delahunt (D)- 92, 2, 1, 3
CT-02 (D+8)- Courtney (D)- 89, 3, 4, 2
CT-04 (D+5)- Shays (R)- 71, 11, 13, 3
NY-02 (D+7)- Israel (D)- 72, 10, 14, 3
NY-04 (D+9)- McCarthy (D)- 62, 18, 14, 4
NY-21 (D+9)- McNulty (D)- 85, 7, 3, 2
NY-22 (D+6)- Hinchey (D)- 80, 8, 8, 3
NY-27 (D+7)- Higgins (D)- 89, 4, 5, 1
NJ-12 (D+8)- Holt (D)- 72, 11, 5, 9
PA-11 (D+5)- Kanjorski (D)- 93, 2, 3, 1
PA-12 (D+5)- Murtha (D)- 95, 3, 1, 0
PA-13 (D+8)- Schwartz (D)- 86, 6, 3, 4
DE (D+7)- Castle (R)- 72, 19, 5, 2
MD-02 (D+8)- Ruppersburger (D)- 66, 27, 2, 2
MD-03 (D+7)- Sarbanes (D)- 76, 16, 3, 3
MD-05 (D+9)- Hoyer (D)- 60, 30, 3, 4
The Midwest has 100 House seats, of which 11 are D+5 to D+9. IN-07 is rated competitive. None of these seats are in Republican hands.
OH-09 (D+9)- Kaptur (D)- 80, 14, 4, 1
OH-10 (D+6)- Kucinich (D)- 87, 4, 5, 2
OH-13 (D+6)- Sutton (D)- 82, 12, 4, 1
IN-01 (D+8)- Visclosky (D)- 70, 18, 10, 1
IN-07 (D+9)- Carson (D)- 63, 29, 4, 1
IL-12 (D+5)- Costello (D)- 80, 16, 2, 1
IL-17 (D+5)- Hare (D)- 87, 7, 4, 1
MN-08 (D+4)- Oberstar (D)- 95, 1, 1, 0
IA-01 (D+5)- Braley (D)- 92, 4, 2, 1
IA-02 (D+7)- Loebsack (D)- 92, 2, 3, 2
MO-03 (D+8)- Boswell (D)- 90, 3, 3, 2
The South has 145 House seats, of which 6 are D+5 to D+9. None are rated competitive. None of these seats are in Republican hands.
NC-01 (D+9)- Butterfield (D)- 44, 50, 3, 0
NC-04 (D+6)- Price (D)- 69, 21, 5, 4
TN-05 (D+6)- Cooper (D)- 68, 23, 4, 2
TX-16 (D+9)- Reyes (D)- 17, 3, 78, 1
TX-20 (D+8)- Gonzalez (D)- 23, 7, 67, 1
TX-29 (D+8)- Green (D)- 22, 10, 66, 1
The West has 98 House seats, of which 13 are D+5 to D+9. None are rated competitive. None of these seats are in Republican hands.
CO-02 (D+8)- M. Udall (D)- 79, 1, 15, 3
NM-03 (D+6)- T. Udall (D)- 41, 1, 36, 1
NV-01 (D+1)- Berkley (D)- 52, 12, 28, 5
CA-10 (D+9)- Tauscher (D)- 65, 6, 15, 9
CA-20 (D+5)- Costa (D)- 21, 7, 63, 6
CA-23 (D+9)- Capps (D)- 49, 2, 42, 5
CA-47 (D+5)- L. Sanchez (D)- 17, 1, 65, 14
CA-51 (D+7)- Filner (D)- 21, 9, 53, 12
OR-01 (D+6)- Wu (D)- 81, 1, 9, 5
WA-01 (D+7)- Inslee (D)- 82, 2, 4, 8
WA-06 (D+6)- Dicks (D)- 78, 6, 5, 4
WA-09 (D+6)- Smith (D)- 73, 6, 7, 7
HI-01 (D+7)- Abercrombie (D)- 18, 2, 5, 54
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